Charlie Cook, noted Washington elections guru and editor of the National Journal has just reported that the race is now Kerry's to lose. Though obviously there is plenty of time and Bush could reverse his faltering numbers, this is good news for the democratic candidate.
For those of you who are interested, Kerry is maintaining a 296-242 lead in the Electoral College based on state polling.
In light of the above information, can anyone explain to me why my parents, steadfast democrats, are absolutely convinced Kerry is going to lose?
UPDATE: Noam Schieber (just back from vacation at TNR's etc. blog) reports on a story I read this morning and then just forgot about: A possible Kerry Landslide in Ohio. The pertinent part is buried way at the end of the article:
In a survey last week by the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) led Bush among likely voters 48 to 46 percent, with independent Ralph Nader garnering 1 percent. A Gallup poll in Ohio also showed a two-point spread favoring Kerry, but when the pool of respondents was expanded to include all registered voters, not just people who voted last time, Kerry was ahead by 10 points [emphasis added].
Since turnout for Democrats is expected to be higher in Ohio this year than in 2000, this is yet another reason why democrats can be guardedly optimistic about November.
Unfortunately, I know some lifelong Democrats that will be voting for Bush. It's amazing, I know. For some reason these people are voting against Kerry because they are from Pittsburgh and there is something to do with the Heinzes. What they did that is worse than taking the country to war under false pretenses is beyond me.
ReplyDelete