Back in Jitter Mode

Well, the jitters are back. I can see tonight's debate turning out very, very badly for John Kerry. Why? Well, in the last debate I thought that Foreign Policy swung what was otherwise a close debate into Kerry's column. In Arizonia, Kerry doesn't have that crutch. But worse for Kerry is the fact that he's EXPECTED to win tonight. Part of why Kerry's huge win in the 1st debate moved polls so much was that it was supposed to be on his weaker issue. Now, I don't think this is necessarily true, I think the President is if anything more vulnerable on FP than he is domestically. But for the media, reality isn't what matters, perception is. And since the media has framed the economy as the President's achilles heel, if he performs with marginal competence (a benchmark he exceeded in debate 2) then he will be seen as the victor for the same reasons Kerry won the first debate: reassuring the American people.

This debate could go quite right, and John Kerry has proven me wrong before. But it could go very, very, wrong, and once again I'm left on the edge of my seat.