Is Huckabee the Republican Jed Bartlet?

I just finished season seven this weekend, so hopefully you won't have to endure any more West Wing analogies from me. But ever since his better than expected finish at the Ames Straw Poll, I haven't been able to get the Huckabee/Bartlet comparison out of my head.

Those of who are equally geeked-out on the show as I am will recall that Bartlet entered his first Presidential race as a prohibitive underdog, with little money, little support, and no chance against the prohibitive favorite for the nomination, Senator John Hoynes (D-TX). But with a few nifty moves and a "tell it like it is" style, he did surprisingly well in some early primaries, giving him the momentum he needed to catch and eventually surpass the front-runner. Bartlet's big advantage was that he was charismatic, and that he appealed to the hearts of the base--who only needed some persuasion that he had a shot of winning before they flocked away from the centrist Hoynes.

In Huckabee's case, he also has seen little money or momentum, and in his case struggled to enter a conversation that, at various points, has included up to four "front-runners" (Fred Thompson, Romney, McCain, and Giuliani). But even without institutional backing or really being given a shot by anybody, he's managed to surprise some folks along the way and has earned his place as a legitimate contender. Huckabee's big advantage in this field is that his voters actually want to vote for him. Unlike the former Big Four, he is not the lesser of however many evils to his supporters. That gives him a lot of room to move. And his charisma makes him surprisingly threatening in the general for a right-wing fan boy. That's why liberal commentators such as Kos and Steve Benen have, in so many words, labeled him the Democrats' most-feared candidate (another fact which Huckabee can use to his advantage).

So, in short, Huckabee has a lot of advantages. But he has one big thing playing against him. Huckabee is not the Republican institutional candidate. And in politics, it is approaching the level of a truism that, in GOP presidential nominations, the house always wins. Once Huckabee is seen as a threat, I think you'll see him either co-opted by the institutional elements of the party, or you'll see a very concerted campaign to take his candidacy down.