If Donald Trump is elected president in 2024, there is a near-100% chance he will pardon the January 6 insurrectionists. I think that is effectively beyond contestation. Here are my two questions:
1) If a different Republican (e.g., DeSantis) is elected in 2024, what are the odds that he pardons the insurrectionists? I'd say it's less likely than the near-certainty that Trump would do it; but is it even below 50%? Below 10%?
2) If Trump is elected in 2024, what are the odds that he tries to prosecute at least some of the Capitol police officers who resisted the January 6 insurrectionists (here he is calling one such officer a "thug" and Ashli Babbitt a "hero")?
Scary thoughts.
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