I like to keep a half eye on Senate, House, and gubernatorial polling trends at The Downballot (formerly Daily Kos Elections). There are quite a few swing state races that are certainly close, but seem to have mild Democratic advantages -- these include the Michigan and Pennsylvania Senate races, for instance. But there are also some swing state races where Democrats are running away with it -- Ruben Gallego looks set to smoke Kari Lake in Arizona, for instance; same with Josh Stein over Mark Robinson in the race for North Carolina Governor.
All of these races are occurring in tightly contested swing states. If anything, Arizona and North Carolina are more red leaning than are Michigan and Pennsylvania. So why are Lake and Robinson doing so poorly?
Obviously, the most straightforward answer is "they're both certified nutjobs." But the same statewide polls that have Lake and Robinson down by double-digits have Trump either tied or ahead. And I truly, honestly, cannot figure out what sort of person recognizes the nuttiness of a Kari Lake or a Mark Robinson but doesn't see it in Trump. What's the difference? What makes Trump's lunacy different from Lake's or Robinson's? What characterizes the voter who sees Lake or Robinson as different-in-kind from Trump?
Honestly, I’ve become convinced that it’s the Apprentice effect.
ReplyDeleteThe most successful reality TV producer in the game spent a decade beaming across the country the fiction that a brain dead professional failson was some swashbuckling business mogul. Even for those that didn’t watch the show, the image stuck. I think that’s 90% of it. The rest is that Mark Robinson is black and Kari Lake is a woman. You can’t get away with being a cognitively deficient nut if you’ve got dark skin or lack a Y chromosome.
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