(One note: I'm historically pretty bad at this.).
U.S. House
Not going to do individual races here, but I will predict that Democrats retake the House, and by a pretty comfortable but not overwhelming margin. We'll go with a 25-seat Democratic majority when all is said and done.
Senate
Alaska -- Mary Petola (D-flip): She's well-liked in the state and has consistently led Dan Sullivan in the polls. I think she'll take more votes than both Dan Sullivans combined, making an already frivolous DOJ lawsuit even more pointless than it already was.
Florida -- Ashley Moody (R): Nixon may make it closer than some people expect, but Florida will still be Florida. I don't think Nixon's DSA affiliation seems to either be helping or hurting her in the general, so take from that what you will.
Georgia -- Jon Ossoff (D): If you had told me a few years ago that a Georgia Senate race would be a Democratic walkover, I'd have laughed. But here we are (and it's nice to be here!).
Iowa -- Ashley Hinson (R): This one really feels like a pure toss-up, and it's been a while since Iowa has felt like a pure toss-up. I can't quite bring myself to call the Democratic upset, but if Turek does win it really could augur a broader shift of the rust-belt midwest back to its at least swingier roots.
Kansas -- Roger Marshall (R): If "it's been a while since Iowa has felt like a toss-up", I'm not sure Kansas has ever felt like a toss-up. It'd be amazing if Hamilton can get over the hump though.
Maine -- Troy Jackson (D-flip): Jackson may not be the most inspiring candidate, but he's competent enough (and doesn't have any pesky Nazi tattoos). Susan Collins' luck will finally run out in a blue state with severe blue headwinds. Good riddance.
Michigan -- Mike Rogers (R-flip): This is a pure vibes-based call. I would not put money on this, and I'd be very sad at this outcome. But AES just doesn't seem like he's been able to close the show here. I'm not sure how much to take from the polls vastly overstating AES' support in the primary -- primaries are not general elections, so the same "mistake" doesn't necessarily cross-apply -- but it's another factor making me nervous. Of all my picks, this is the one I'm least sure about and will be least surprised to be wrong about. But if we see a "surprise" GOP victory anywhere on election day, this is where I think it'll be.
Minnesota -- Peggy Flanagan (D): A lot of polls have had this race surprisingly tight, but nobody is putting their money where their mouth is and actually acting like it will be close. Put me in the column that says this won't be end up being all that close.
Mississippi -- Cindy Hyde-Smith (R): Wow, this one would feel good. But I still can't fathom the GOP actually losing a race in this part of the country unless they run a literal pedophile. Which they have been dumb enough to do in the past, but not this time.
North Carolina -- Roy Cooper (D-flip): If it weren't for Georgia taking the crown of "I can't believe this state of all places will be a Democratic walkover!", it'd be North Carolina.
Nebraska -- Pete Ricketts (R): I've been burned too many times thinking that "this will be the year a Nebraska independent upsets the apple cart!"
New Hampshire -- Chris Pappas (D): Republicans have a far-above-replacement level candidate here, but I can't imagine New Hampshire bucking a Democratic wave trend this year (and it's not like Pappas is some wounded bird either).
Ohio -- Sherrod Brown (D-flip): What I don't think Turek can do in Iowa, I do think Brown can do in Ohio. It would be hilarious of Vivek Ramaswamy's late campaign implosion gave Brown enough reverse-coattails to carry him to victory.
South Carolina -- Darlene Graham (R): Another race that really shouldn't be competitive but has an intoxicating brew of terrible GOP candidate and terrible GOP national environment. Here, too, though, I dare not believe.
Texas -- James Talarico (D-flip): The theme of the Senate predictions, you may have noticed, is David being unwilling to believe that Democrats can crawl across the finish line in historically GOP territory. There have been too many times where we've thought "maybe Iowa is close" or "maybe Florida is swingy again", and it hasn't panned out -- and Blue Texas is probably the apex of that. But eff it -- here's where I'll decide to believe. Ken Paxton is a generationally-terrible candidate, and Talarico is more than strong enough to take advantage. Add that to a collapse in GOP Latino support, and I'm willing to ignore all of my doomer instincts and say this will, indeed, be the year.
Net: D+4
Most Likely To Be Wrong: (1) Michigan, (2) Ohio, (3) Texas, (4) Iowa, (5) South Carolina, (6) Kansas, (7) Alaska, (8) New Hampshire, (9) Maine.
Governor
Alaska -- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D-flip): The Alaska Senate race so overshadowed the governor's race that I didn't even fully realize this contest was competitive. And in fairness, it may not be: the most recent polling has Kreiss-Tomkins holding a double-digit lead. He even got a cross-party endorsement from Lisa Murkowski!
Alabama -- Tommy Tuberville (R): I love Doug Jones, but sadly America's dumbest Senator will soon become America's dumbest Governor.
Arizona -- Katie Hobbs (D): I can still see this race being maybe a bit closer than folks predict, but Hobbs should take it home.
Florida -- Byron Donalds (R): Donalds has been struggling more than I'd expect to lock this race down. Racism? Maybe! But like with the Senate, I ultimately expect Florida to be Florida, and put the Republican into office.
Georgia -- Keisha Lance-Bottoms (D-flip): Late polling has seen this race tighten up considerably, which I don't love, but the enthusiasm still seems to be with Democrats.
Iowa -- Rob Sand (D-flip): I know what I said about Iowa re: the Senate race, but I think for a state position Democrats are better positioned to compete, and Sand's consistently led this entire race.
Kansas -- Ty Masterson (R-flip): Weird to write "R-flip" for Kansas. Even weirder given how badly Marshall is struggling in the Senate race. It'd be wild if Kansas elects a Democrat Senator while also swapping parties for Governor in the same cycle.
Maine -- Hannah Pingree (D): Much less stressful than the Maine Senate race.
Michigan -- Jocelyn Benson (D): John James seems set to take up the Martha McSally award for "candidate who seems good on paper but can't ever seem to, you know, win."
Minnesota -- Amy Klobuchar (D): Amy Klobuchar has always curb-stomped any Republican dumb enough to face her. That streak will not end now.
Nebraska -- Jim Pillen (R): Haven't heard a peep on this one, which is good news for the GOP.
Nevada -- Aaron Ford (D-flip): Nevada's purple in the sense that Republicans can still squeak out victories in very good GOP years. This is not going to be a very good GOP year.
New York -- Kathy Hochul (D): It's cute how some people think this race will be close.
Ohio -- Amy Acton (D-flip): I'm not sure why any part of me thinks "surely, this behavior by [GOP candidate] is so viscerally repulsive that the voters will recoil", given, you know, a lifetime of experience. But somehow, I do believe that regarding Vivek Ramaswamy! Even though as far as I can tell, polls have not actually picked up a dip following his horrific "being raped as a child makes Amy Acton damaged goods" closing pitch.
Oklahoma -- Mike Mazzei (R): It'd take something extraordinary for a Republican to lose in Oklahoma, and if something extraordinary was afoot you'd think I'd at least recognize the candidate's name.
Oregon -- Tina Kotek (D): Kotek may not be inspiring the most adoration from voters right now, but this is not going to be the year Oregon puts a Republican into office.
South Carolina -- Alan Wilson (R): A lot more low-key than the Senate race.
Texas -- Greg Abbott (R): It's amazing what running a normal terrible Republican, as opposed to a cartoonishly corrupt mob boss figure Republican, can do for Republican chances in Texas.
Vermont -- Phil Scott (R): Just change parties, man. Or at least call yourself an independent.
Wisconsin -- David Crowley (D): Given the insane ending to the Democratic primary here, I'm surprised I haven't heard more about the general. I guess that's good for Crowley, though?
Net: D+4
Most Likely To Be Wrong: (1) Ohio, (2) Wisconsin, (3) Nevada, (4) Iowa, (5) Georgia, (6) Texas, (7) Arizona, (8) Florida, (9) Vermont.
Bonus Local Races!
Multnomah County Chair -- Shannon Singleton: I voted for Julia Brim-Edwards. But I don't know -- it feels to me like Singleton might have the momentum. It's another vibes pick, and I wouldn't be surprised to be wrong, but it would be an interesting upset.
Portland City Council District 3 -- Steve Novick, Tiffany Koyama Lane, Angelita Morillo: First thing's first: all the councilors in Portland are Democrats, but there is a divide between a more mainline liberal caucus and a lefty caucus ("Peacock" -- "progressive caucus"). Koyama Lane and Morillo are Peacocks, while Novick is considered the main swing voter on the council.
Now, onto the predictions. Everyone hates the incumbents, and all the incumbents win. That's my prediction for all Portland city council races, and it's my prediction here. If there is to be any shakeup, though, it's possible that Kellie Torres -- who'd align with the mainline liberals -- could dislodge either Koyama Lane or Morillo.
Portland City Council District 4 -- Olivia Clark, Eric Zimmerman, Mitch Green. Everyone hates the incumbents, and all the incumbents win. The most likely "shakeup" here, I think, is if Eli Arnold slips in at the expense of Eric Zimmerman. "Shakeup" is in quotes because I view Arnold and Zimmerman as essentially indistinguishable (both are, along with Clark, in the mainline liberal camp; Green is a Peacock DSAer).
No comments:
Post a Comment