Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Election Day Liveblog

Whatever I find interesting on the election, throughout the day. I've never live-blogged before, so this should be an interesting experiment. All times Central.


4:12 AM: I am done for the night. By my rough count, I had 164 updates on this post, spread across more than 13 hours. Wowzers. Thanks to all of the folks who stopped into read. It appears we're ending on a high note--both Tester (MT-Sen) and Marshall (GA-08) are seeing their leads expand (Marshall is over 1,000 votes ahead!). That said, I'm getting some sleep.

3:55 AM: 13 hours of non-stop blogging. Wow am I good. Let the record reflect that I did not check to see if I had any homework until 2 AM. Thank the Lord I didn't. There's no real movement in any of the races I'm following. Sali's lead is up to 5 and I see no reason to think he'll lose it. Trauner will definitely be within recount land against Cubin, but he'll enter the recount behind--the remaining votes to be counted can't make up even his 800 vote gap. Reichert is holding a 4 point lead over Burner in Washington, the count is at 25% and is going maddeningly slow. Ditto with Montana Senate, which is crawling along (Tester + 5,200 with 84% counted).

3:33 AM: The Washington Post reports that Democratic winds were so strong in the Maryland suburbs that there is a chance that there will no elected Republican at any level in either Montgomery or Prince George's County. A long-serving GOP county council member was already swept out, so now it's just Del. Jean B. Cryor holding on for dear life.

3:27 AM: McInerney will take Pombo's 11th District seat. That will be the Democrat's only pick up in California and possibly on the West Coast.

3:07 AM: Sali is still maintaining his 3 point lead in the Idaho 1st. Also, it appears the GOP evaded a Pennsylvania sweep, as Jim Gerlach jumped ahead of Lois Murphy at the last moment in the 6th. Murphy was leading all day, my my recollection.

3:04 AM: Apparently, the delay is do to a recount in Yellowstone County. Tester was leading by 1,300 votes in a "must-win-for-Burns" county. For reasons that haven't been made clear to me yet, they local board there has thrown out all their results thus far and is starting over again. Maybe I'm a bit jumpy, but this seems quite suspicious to me.

2:54 AM: Tester's lead is quietly fading. He's only up 4,000 with 81% counted. A friend tells me they aren't going to hear until 4-7, Mountain Time.

2:50 AM: I'm going to wait until CNN calls for Tester, then turn in. There will be several races still in the air, but I'll know most of what I need to know. Democratic House, Democratic Senate, and, assuming Marshall pulls through, not a single Democratic incumbent in the House, Senate, or Statehouse defeated. That feels good. That feels real good.

2:02 AM: Washington Post calls it for Pawlenty. One of the only GOP bright spots. McInerney's lead is holding together with 75% counted.

1:49 AM: McInerney is up 4 on Richard Pombo in California with 71% reporting. This is one of the few remaining Democratic pickup opportunities I see developing (not counting aforementioned races still in the margin of error).

1:40 AM: There are at least three races right now where the margin is less than 1,000 votes and the vote count is higher than 95% (but not yet done). They are the CT-02, GA-08, WY-AL. In the New Mexico 1st, Heather Wilson's lead is 1,200 votes with 99% counted.

1:32 AM: The Washington Post is projecting that Sarah Palin will win the Alaska Governor's race over Tony Knowles; a crucial hold for the GOP. Tim Pawlenty's lead over Mike Hatch around 23,000 with 91% counted. Assuming Pawlenty wins, I'll have exactly predicted the Governor's races as well.

1:26 AM: Jon Tester is holding steady with a 3 point lead over Conrad Burns. 69% of the vote is in.

1:20 AM: Heather Wilson has taken a 300 vote lead in her dead-even race with Patricia Madrid (NM-1). 95% of the vote has been counted.

1:19 AM: Webb's lead is now 8,000 votes. Allen is toast, even with the recount. And Chuck Robb can rest easy.

1:16 AM Porter (R) has won in the NV-03 by one point. That was far closer than it justifiably should have been for the GOP.

1:11 AM Missouri has been called for McCaskill. There still are more than 10% of votes to be counted, but I suspect they are in her strongholds. It's good to be wrong. And this was the last major roadblock to a Democratic Senate!

1:10 AM Angie Paccione has not been able to crack Marilyn Musgrave's 3 point lead in the CO-05. With 80% counted, it looks like Musgrave will hold on.

1:06 AM: Henry Bonilla (R) in the TX-23 looks like he'll only muster 47% of the vote (83% counted). He'll face a runoff against former Democratic representative Ciro Rodriguez.

1:02 AM: I'm looking around to see what eastern races have yet to be called. There are two Ohio races where the GOP candidate is winning by a good 2-3,000 votes with 99% or more tallied. I think we can call those safely. The Michigan 7th features a 5 point GOP lead, with 87% counted. That district leans right, so I don't expect that margin to change. The rest are in races already discussed--the two GOP Georgia targets, the Connecticut 2nd, the NC-11th, and the Iowa 2nd, which I'm comfortable calling a Democratic pickup even if CNN isn't.

12:56 AM: Now that the House is assured and the Senate is looking good too, the next thing on my wish list is that Democrats not lose any national seat, anywhere. The only two things standing in my way are the Georgia 8th and 12th districts. Right now, with around 95% of the vote counted in each, the Democratic incumbents lead by 600 and 3,300, respectively.

12:54 AM: 85% of the vote counted, McCaskill's lead is 25,000 votes and opening. I'm beginning to taste a Democratic Senate.

12:52 AM: NM-01, 94% reporting, Madrid's lead is 300.

12:51 AM 98% of precincts are in, Cubin still has a 600 vote lead over Trauner in Wyoming. Kleeb has not managed to close his 10 point gap in NE-03 (80% reporting).

12:47 AM: Bill Sali (ID-1) has a 3 point lead with 45% reporting in the Idaho 1st.

12:34 AM: CT-02: Joe Courtney's (D) lead over Rob Simmons is around 200 votes with 97% counted.

12:30 AM: I should congratulate Keith Ellison, who will be the first Muslim in Congress after winning Minnesota's 5th district with 65% of the vote.

12:29 AM: Tester appears to be cruising in Montana. All eyes on Missouri.

12:23 AM: 100% of the votes are in, Murphy has a 1,500 vote lead over Fitzpatrick. Color another seat blue (until the recount).

12:17 AM: McCaskill has the lead by 1 point with 81% reporting. Don't tease me, baby...

12:10 AM: Loebsack is up 600 votes with 99% reporting in the IA-02. But the remaining 1% all come from counties he's winning. It looks like the Cornell College Professor dug it out. They're going to be partying in Mount Vernon tonight!

12:09 AM: Pawlenty has pulled ahead of Hatch. He's got a 7,000 vote lead with 75% reporting.

12:06 AM: It's going to be close, but we're still on track for that Pennsylvania sweep: Governor, Senator, and 5 House seats. The 8th District remains deadlocked--99% is in and challenger Lois Murphy is up by a scant 1,300 votes.

12:03 AM: 85% of the vote is in, Walz is up by 6. Gutknecht is gone.

12:01 AM: People laughed when I said the NC-08 was in play. Well now the votes are in, and incumbent Robin Hayes has won...by less than 500 votes. Another recount coming up!

11:58 PM: With 69% counted in the Nebraska 3rd, Adrien Smith (R) is holding a 10 point lead over Scott Kleeb. Kleeb was a great story, but I don't think he'll pull this one out.

11:54 PM: Here in Minnesota, Hatch is still holding a narrow (9,000 vote) lead over incumbent Tim Pawlenty with 58% counted.

11:46 PM: Democrats pick up the 8th Wisconsin district formerly represented by Mark Green, who proceeded to lose the governor's race.

11:39 PM: Speaking of recounts, it appears I was a bit too quick writing off the Florida 13th. Vern Buchanan did pull it out, but with the precincts in, its a 400 vote margin. Coming up: A recount in Katherine Harris' old district!

11:37 PM: 85% of the vote in IA-02, Loebsack is up 2. The remaining counties seem to lean right though. Major upset if Loebsack takes this one.

11:35 PM: Keep an eye on the Iowa 2nd. Loebsack (D) is beating long time incumbent Jim Leach 52/48, with 59% in.

11:32 PM: Collins is now ahead of Marshall, possibly marking the only GOP pickup anywhere in the country this cycle (House, Senate, or Governorship). 94% of the vote has been counted there, the lead is 1,200. Barrow (D) still leads Burns by 900 votes, with 92% counted in the other critical Georgia race.

11:30 PM: With 94% of the vote in, Barbara Cubin (R) has taken a 400 vote lead in the Wyoming at large congressional race. This one is a nailbiter.

11:27 PM: Congratulations Jim Webb! I don't see Harold Ford coming back in Tennessee, which means that Dems need to sweep Missouri and Montana to take back the Senate. Can they do it? Tester is up early in Montana, and I still remember how he left the polling in his wake during the primary ballot. So I'm feeling good there. Missouri is the question. Again, I never feel good about Missouri. McCaskill is down 4 right now, with two thirds of the vote in. St. Louis and Kansas City got to pull through....

11:25 PM: The finals score in Virginia: D- WEBB 1,143,144 49.44%; R- ALLEN 1,140,879 49.42%. Webb goes into the recount with the lead, which is huge, especially since ballot issues tend to effect Democratic precincts worse, his lead might expand.

11:21 PM: Walz has expanded his lead to 6 with two thirds counted in the MN-1, and CNN is calling a Democratic pick up in the IA-01.

11:20 PM: Ryun goes down in the Kansas 2. A lot of people thought the DNCC was doing a head fake when it put money into this race. Guess they were wrong.

11:17 PM: Shays looks like he is going to survive his race, but Rob Simmons and Joe Courtney are locked into a dog fight--with Simmons ahead by less than 2,000 votes. Picking up 2 of 3 CT GOP seats would feel alot better than 1 of 3.

11:10 PM: Maryland is over. O'Malley is up by 3, Cardin is up by 6, and virtually all the remaining votes come from Democratic strongholds (MoCo, PG County, and the Baltimore metro area).

11:03 PM: The same-sex marriage ban is down 4 points in Arizona with 76% counted. It's up by the same margin with 55% counted in South Dakota (which appears likely to reject it's total abortion ban as well).

11:00 PM: The returns in PG County, Montgomery County, and Baltimore/Baltimore City Counties all have left me quite optimistic that Ehrlich and Steele are going down. But the National Review claims that their candidates are in fact overperforming, and also that the upcoming precincts in those jurisdictions are more GOP.

10:57 PM: Webb just took the lead over Allen! A 2,500 vote lead, to be sure, but still. And I'd eyeball that he has a narrow advantage in the remaining counties to be tabulated.

10:54 PM: Another GOP Representative whose been constantly on Democratic hit lists has gone down: Melissa Hart (PA-4) drops her seat 52/48. Of the five Pennsylvania seats in contention, this was supposed to be the toughest, although right now the Murphy/Fitzpatrick race is dead even, with Murphy holding a 2,000 vote lead over the incumbent with 87% counted.

10:49 PM: Richmond City is mostly in, and Allen's lead has shrunk to 6,000. Only 2% of the vote left to be counted, Charlottesville, Loudoun, Fairfax City are the big vote caches still left for Webb.

10:42 PM: 46% of the vote counted, Walz is up 4 over Gutknecht in the MN-01. This is a firewall district for the GOP--Walz is a great candidate, but Gutknecht was not considered vulnerable until recently.

10:38 PM: Republicans still don't have a pickup yet, and their two best shots in Georgia seem to be staying just tantalizingly out of reach. Marshall and Barrow are both holding two point leads with over 80% of the vote counted.

10:36 PM: Lampson picks up DeLay's old seat. I don't know if he'll be able to hold it, but damn it feels good.

10:29 PM: Trauner is fading in Wyoming--he's up 4 now with two thirds counted.

10:22 PM: I'm doing the math in my head, but Virginia is going to end razor thin. Richmond City still has to report a third of it's precincts, if they go in the same proportion they have been, that's 7,000 votes for Webb. There's a 1,000 more each remaining in Prince William's, Petersburg, and Newport News Counties. That's 10,000. Most of the rest of the vote has been tabulated--there a few small Allen counties that still have to count, and even fewer small Webb ones. This one will be a recount.

10:18 PM: The rest of Arlington County has reported, and, as I predicted (I so rock), Allen's lead has been slashed in half. It's currently at 11,000 votes.

10:16 PM: WY-AL, Trauner is still holding a 6 point lead over Cubin with 61% counted.

10:12 PM: Apparently, Mark Foley's seat is ours.

10:10 PM: Mitchell is up 7 over "bully" J.D. Hayworth in the Arizona 5th with over 2/3 counted (we've already won the 8th). Another race I'd love to win.

10:07 PM: Former Redskins QB Heath Shuler is coming to Congress as he knocks of Charles Taylor in the NC-11. Also, Democrat Zack Space will succeed Bob Ney, giving the big D machine it's first House pick-up in Ohio. Deborah Pryce looks like she'll stave off a spirited challenge and survive, but the 1st and 2nd districts are still in play.

10:05 PM: In the NY-20 and 24th, Democrats are up by 6 and 9 points, respectively, with 72% counted.

10:02 PM: Foley/Negron are down 2,000 votes with 92% counted. Democrats need to pull this one out--it is way too close for comfort.

10:00 PM: Cardin is obliterating Steele in PG County. He's up 75/25 in a place Steele had to make inroads to win.

9:56 PM: It is only because of the KS-02 that the NH-01 wouldn't be called the biggest upset. Democrat Shea-Porter is up 2 points with 90% of the vote counted.

9:54 PM: 59% of the vote is in, and the Kansas 2nd is still leaning our way. This might be the biggest upset of the cycle.

9:51 PM: Allen's margin is 28,000 with 95% of the vote counted. I don't want to keep hanging on false hope. But nearly all the jurisdictions of any size with any substantive amount of votes still to be counted are in Webb locales. At the very least, we're looking at a recount.

9:42 PM: The emerging wisdom is that this race is regional--blue areas are going to go blue, while red areas present tougher turf for Dems. What that means is that there will be a counter-alignment comparable to what the GOP did in the south in '94. All those hold out Republicans in the Northeast (and many in the midwest) will lose, but the GOP won't be swept out in its stronger regions (Virginia, Tennessee, Florida). The interesting thing to note here, then, will be the Mountain West, which has been trending Democratic lately. Trauner is up over Cubin in the WY-AL by 12 points, with 31% in what would be a stunning Democratic upset.

9:29 PM: Some of these races are earlier than others, but there are 5 competitive Pennsylvania House races, and in all five the Democrat is leading. In the PA-10 (Sherwood) and PA-07 (Weldon), the lead is in double-digits with over two-thirds of the vote counted. Those two are in the bag--the question is, can we sweep?

9:26 PM: With 49% counted, Democrat Boydon is up 10 points on Ryun in the KS-02. Guess that DNC hail mary paid off.

9:19 PM: Sestak is still up 12 with 72% counted, and Weldon's base is already in. Score another Democratic pick-up.

9:16 PM: "Mark Foley" (aka, Joe Negron) has pulled back into the lead in his race, which makes Clay Shaw the only Florida Republican still down. He's trailing by 4 to Joe Klein with 57% counted. Oddly enough, Shaw was considered the safest of the three districts for the GOP.

9:12 PM: Allen's lead is 25,000 votes. Around half of that should be erased by when the rest of Arlington county comes in. The other half though, does not seem to be forthcoming. Loudoun and Prince Williams counties are going for Webb, but not by enough.

9:08 PM: MyDD reports that Nancy Johnson has conceded. One of the Connecticut three has gone down (and many thought she'd be the toughest)!

9:06 PM: 77% of the vote in and Geoff Davis has surged in the KY-04. He's up 7, and looks to hold his seat for the GOP.

9:04 PM: Bad news for the GOP: Marshall and Darrow, the endangered Georgia duo for the Dems, are both ahead with around 2/3 counted (albeit by very narrow margins).

9:03 PM: Correction--Hamilton County is not in Pryce's district. Which is tied 50-50 right now with 82% reporting, by the way.

8:57 PM: Bradley and Shea-Porter are still tied in New Hampshire. Democrats weren't even supposed to be close in this race.

8:54 PM, with 44% in, Joe Sestak is up 12 points on absolute nut Curt Weldon. That one will feel really, really good to win.

8:52 PM: Possibly the GOP's only two legit pickup opportunities in the House--the GA-08 and GA-12, are neck and neck, with around half the vote counted.

8:47 PM: Hodes is 7 points up on Bass in New Hampshire's first district. I'm guessing this will be another Democratic pickup. Heath Shuler is holding a 6 point lead over Charles Taylor in North Carolina, but only a third of the votes are in.

8:46 PM: I was right about Pryce's district. It's 51-49 Pryce with 55% counted. All the votes are from Hamilton county, which, if memory serves, is a GOP stronghold.

8:41 PM: With 96% of the vote in, Vern Buchanan looks likely to hold Katherine Harris' seat for the GOP. He's up 51-49. That's a blow. Thelma Drake is also up 52-48 in the VA-02 with 84% counted, though that hold was more expected. On the other hand, Ken Lucas has closed to a 1 point gap behind Geoff Davis in the KY-04 (54% counted).

8:34 PM: I'm starting to feel less optimistic about Virginia. It's still 50-49, but with 79% of the vote in, that's a 22,000 vote lead. There are still votes to be had in NoVA, but I'm not sure it will be enough.

8:32 PM: Another D pickup: with 83% in, it's Donnelly over Chocola, 53-47.

8:29 PM: Something's not right. CNN has Deborah Pryce (R-OH-15) up 90% to 10% over her Democratic challenger with 55% of the vote counted. Democrat Kilroy has less than 5,000 votes tallied. This was supposed to be a close race, and Kilroy was polling ahead. I'm willing to admit that perhaps we miscalculated, but not by this margin. What gives?

8:26 PM: KY-03 is over--with 100% of the vote in, Yarmuth tops Northrup 51-48.

8:24 PM: CNN calls Maryland for Cardin, but with only 1% reported (and Steele leading that 1%), I don't know why.

8:20 PM: Allen continues to hold the narrowest of leads, 50-48 with 74% reporting. Several major Webb counties still have yet to report, and the one's that have reported are so large there are plenty of votes left to give (Fairfax County, for example). This race will come down to Loudon and Prince Williams' counties, which as K-Lo notes, are traditional GOP turf that went to Kaine last year.

8:14 PM: As I say it, Foley's district flips--now the Democratic challenger Mahoney is up by 1 point with 49% counted. VA-02 continues to stay at 51-49 for Republican Drake with 67% counted--this is GOP turf, I don't think the Democrat is going to make it up.

8:12 PM: Also, a word of caution to Florida Republicans elated that Foley/Negron is still holding his lead. Palm Beach county, a vote rich Democratic stronghold, has yet to report.

8:10 PM: More nervousness reported from Ehrlich HQ. Meanwhile, Ehrlich and Steele have admitted to handing out those misleading flyers mentioned below (the one's that said they were Democrats).

8:09 PM: I'm ready to call the KY-03. Yarmuth's lead just expanded to 51-48 with 96% counted. That's a massive Democratic pickup--Northrup's been confounding us for years.

8:06 PM: There are three Democratic targets in Kentucky: Districts 2, 3, and 4. The 3rd district is Northrup's--there has been no movement changing Yarmuth's 50-49 lead there (88% counted). In the 2nd district, Democrat Mike Weaver is down just 48-52 behind Ron Lewis (29% counted), and in the 4th District, Ken Lucas continues to trail 49-46 to Geoff Davis (35% reported).

8:03 PM: "Mark Foley" is clinging to a 49-48 lead with 40% counted. I guess voters did decide to "punch Foley" and vote for Negron.

8:00 PM: Allen is still up by that same 50-49 margin. NoVA continues to lag. About half the NoVA vote is win, and Webb is cleaning up there. Anyone know when I'll see some MD results?

7:50 PM: With about 50% counted in each district, Donnelly is +6 on Chocola in the IN-02, and Hill is +2 over Sodrel in the IN-09.

7:44 PM: Paul Hodes beating Charles Bass would not be a surprise (he's well ahead, but only 9% of the vote has been counted). However, if the other New Hampshire House seat flipped, that would be stunning. Right now, Democrat Carol Shea-Porter is holding a narrow 51-49 lead over incumbent Jed Bradley with 33% counted.

7:38 PM: 36% counted in the VA-02, and Kellam is up over Drake by literally one vote.

7:36 PM: Two great K-Lo moments. #1: "I'm hearing a lot of — and am prone to myself — anger toward voters for what may be seeing tonight." Welcome to my world, circa 2002-04. #2: Rush Limbaugh is "one of the clearest thinkers I've heard lately."

7:33 PM: Buchanan continues to hold a surprisingly strong 53-47 lead with 41% counted to retain Katherine Harris' seat for the GOP. Yarmuth is still barely ahead of Northrup with 88% counted, but Northrup has not seemed able to get over the hump.

7:30 PM: Washington Monthly gives an update on the climate in Minnesota. My adopted state is one of the few places I'm pessimistic about--I predict Klobuchar to be our next Senator, but Pawlenty to hold the Governor's mansion and Tim Walz to fall just short in the MN-01.

7:27 PM: Allen is up 50-49 with 40% reporting in the tight Virginia Senate race. Again, with the exception of Fairfax (which is now about 75% in), most of NoVA has not reported. Webb is winning Fairfax 59-40.

7:24 PM: In the VA-02, an outside Democratic pickup chance, incumbent Thelma Drake is up by less than 200 votes (a 50-50 tie, statistically) with 24% of precincts reporting.

7:23 PM: A bunch of precincts just reported in the IN-09--with 42% of the vote in, Hill has expanded his lead over Sodrel to 50-46.

7:19 PM: Aside from the Hostettler race, two other Indiana districts are in dogfights. Democratic challenger Donnelly leads Chris "The Count" Chocola 59-41 with 26% reporting. While I expect that to close, Hotline tells me that Chocola is running behind his 2004 numbers. Same deal in the Indiana 9th, where Baron Hill is up 49-47 over Republican Mike Sodrel with 28% reporting. Sodrel is also underperforming compared to last cycle (which he won by the slimmest of margins).

7:17 PM: CNN projects Ellsworth over Hostettler--giving the Democrats a pick-up in IN-8. Yarmuth continues to cling to his 50-49 lead over incumbent Northrup in the KY-03 with 83% counted.

7:14 PM: Kos calls pick ups in Ohio (Senate and Governor), as well as Massachusetts (Governor). Also, he calls a hold for the Democratic governor in Illinois (which looked like a close contest for awhile).

7:09 PM: 23% counted, Webb is leading Allen by 50-49 margin. About half the votes have been counted in Fairfax, aside from that, Northern Virginia still is not in.

7:05 PM: 38% counted, Republican Vern Buchanan is up 54-46 in the race for Katherine Harris' old seat. This was supposed to be a key Democratic pickup.

7:00 PM: Rightwing pundit Bill Kristol: "Do you want perverts and child molestors to be let out of prison?" Personally, I'll settle for letting them out of Congress.

6:57 PM: 81% counted in KY-03, Yarmuth is still up 50-49. This one is going to the wire.

6:55 PM: Hotline claims that Alexandria City (N. VA) is voting the same split as it did in the '05 Governor's race, with higher turnout. That's great news for Webb, since he needs a big NoVA turnout and Democrats won the governor's mansion in 2005.

6:49 PM: Allen is up 55-44 in Virginia with 10% counted. Northern Virginia has not started reporting however.

6:45 PM: Dogfight in the Indiana 9th where Democrat Baron Hill is trying to recapture his seat from Mike Sodrel, who beat him last year. Sodrel is up 150 votes with 19% counted. Meanwhile, Yarmuth is closing strong, up 51-48 with 74% counted in the KY-03.

6:41 PM: Only 18% of the vote has been tabulated in John Hostettler's 8th Indiana district, but his Democratic challenger is up 70/30. Worse news for Hostettler--most of that 18% is from his district's 2nd largest county, where Democrat Brad Ellsworth is running 17 points ahead of his 2004 peer. Worse yet: Ellsworth's home county has yet to report.

Republican's will be pleased to note that Hostettler was long since abandoned for dead by his party, so this really isn't a surprise.

6:36 PM: K-Lo at the National Review reports the exact opposite situation in Maryland compared to Hotline--Steele worried about low turnout in heavily Black PG county.

6:35 PM: No vote has been counted, but pundits are already calling Ohio's governor race for Democrat Ted Strickland. That makes for the first seat pickup by either party tonight.

6:31 PM: I keep hearing conflicting things from Maryland. Now Hotline is reporting skyhigh Black turnout in MD, with many of those voters going for Steele out of frustration that the Dems didn't nominate a Black candidate.

6:21 PM: KY-03 continues to be the only competitive race with a significant amount of votes counted. With 64% of the vote counted, Yarmuth has moved back in front with a 2,600 vote (50-49) lead.

6:18 PM: 55% of the vote counted, Northrup has taken a narrow lead (50-49) in the KY-03.

6:16 PM: Hotline is posting live from here on out, so I can't give you permalinks, but they're reporting Virginia's same-sex marriage ban will pass (tragically).

6:08 PM: Kos calls Vermont for Sanders. Never really in doubt, but it's still interesting to have a socialist Senator. Also, he calls Lugar winning re-election as Indiana's Senator.

6:06 PM: Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich is still worried about turnout--apparetnly, he still isn't seeing the numbers he wants.

6:03 PM: Democrats got one third of the evangelical vote, according to exit polls. Is that good?

5:57 PM: 37% of precincts reporting, Yarmuth's lead is holding steady.

5:53 PM: High turnout in Wyoming, probably for the at-large congressional district held by Barbara Cubin. Again, opinion is split as to who this benefits, but my money is on Democratic challenger Trauner.

5:51 PM: Yarmuth (D) takes an early lead over Northrup (R) with 15% reporting.

5:50 PM: Conrad Burns: "I'm not in prison." Not yet, anyway.

5:23 PM: I'm grabbing a quick dinner so I can back for the first returns at 6.

5:19 PM: Heavy turnout in Tom Reynolds' New York district. Normally, I'd say this is good for the Democratic challenger, but he's kept a low profile all race and Reynolds claims he's been going all out on GOTV.

5:16 PM: Fox has exit polls on 11 key House races, with Dems up in 6, GOP up in 3, and 2 tied. No word, unfortunately, on which 11 those races are.

5:08 PM: Something is up with the exit polling. Ryan Lizza claims to have seen 5 different results. However, he says that while the margins differ, across every poll Democrats are up in every race but Tennessee, where they are down or tied.

5:06 PM: Ehrlich and Steele are complaining that uniformed men are confiscating their campaign literature. I wonder if it is the same campaign literature that calls them Democrats?

5:04 PM: MoveOn is offering a $250,000 reward to evidence leading to a felony conviction for voter suppression.

5:03 PM: These numbers look a bit more realistic. Still good news for the big D.
Dem Leads:
VA: 52-47
RI: 53-46
PA: 57-42
OH: 57-43
NJ: 52-45
MT: 53-46
MO: 50-48
MD: 53-46

GOPer leads:
TN: 51-48
AZ: 50-46

4:59 PM: The Plank is reporting first wave exits. So far, good news for the Donkey. Numbers are D/R:

OH: 63.7/36.3

CT: 47.6/44.5 (Lieberman/Lamont)

NJ: 59.7/42.1

TN: 50/50

RI: 55.4/44.6

VA: 55.8/44.2

MO: 53.3/46.7

4:57 PM: 70% turnout in Connecticut? I don't think the Senate race is competitive anymore, but that could swamp the three endangered House Republicans trying to hang on there.

4:55 PM: Turnout appears to be high in several crucial races: Virginia, Montana, Missouri, and Tennessee.

4:52 PM: A conflicting report says Dems are happy with what they're seeing in Tennessee. From the same source: Maryland Democratic turnout not what they'd like in Baltimore, but counterbalanced by overperformance in heavily Democratic Montgomery and Prince George's County.

4:50 PM: Took a break to play Halo. No new exit polling data I've seen, but there is some Webb excitement even outside his Northern base.

4:31 PM: Outside of Tennessee, a Dem operative says the exit polls are looking great for Democratic Senate seats. Here's hoping the exits don't break my heart again like they did last time....

4:26 PM: Some early exit poll data. Most important issue: 42%(!) corruption, 40% terrorism, 39% economy, 37% Iraq. Both parties get equal trust on terrorism, so that's a wash. 56% of voters want to leave Iraq, and National Issues are more important than local ones by a 2:1 margin.

4:16 PM: Not that I'm impatient, but it's 5:16 eastern time, and I still don't see any exit polls. I thought they were supposed to be out by 5?

4:12 PM: Apparently, O'Malley is also nervous about sub-par voter turnout.

4:09 PM: Two bits of news from Nevada: Some anecdotal signs that Democrats are running even in rural regions (which woud be huge). On the other hand, equal anecdotal signs that the scandal around Republican Jim Gibbons is not sticking.

4:03 PM: Maryland is apparently ground-zero for sleazy GOP campaign tactics. We better grind these people into dust.

3:58 PM: Kentucky turnout is also high, again, it's unclear who this benefits (Republican GOTV or Democrats getting out their softer supporters?). Another data point indicating that Virginia voters are pouring in.

3:56 PM: Black voters do not appear warm to Michael Steele. Good news to those not looking forward to my prospective suicide.

3:52 PM: Harold Ford is going to have enough trouble without worrying about if his base will turnout.

3:45 PM: Virginia turnout is apparently sky-high. Apparently this is true across the board (blue Northern Virginia as well as red Southeast), so the question is, who does it help? Although Virginia's red tilt makes me nervous, I think Webb benefits for three reasons: 1) High turnout classically helps Dems, 2) Allen's GOTV operation is not supposed to be all that great, suggesting that it isn't his voters coming out, and 3) Who the hell is energized by Allen at this point?

3:43 PM: Took a nice shower (I played tennis earlier today). Also, I have a message for my fellow Marylanders: If you re-elect Ehrlich, I'll be displeased. If you elect Steele, I'll hang myself.

3:27 PM: "Punch Foley to Vote Negron". It's a good campaign slogan for the GOP's uphill race to keep Mark Foley's seat (Foley's name is still on the ballot, so voters who actually want to vote for Negron will have to mark Foley's name).

3:22 PM: Southern Appeal's Feddie and I probably don't agree on much regarding this election, but we do agree on this.

3:17 PM: I'd vote for this guy over maybe half the candidates in the field today.

3:10 PM: Republicans are claiming intimidation from "teachers' union thugs" in the OH-15 (Deborah Pryce's district). Meanwhile, there are reports of a shortage of provisional ballots in GOP precincts in Heather Wilson's NM-1. Both districts are key Democratic pickup targets.

3:02 PM: GOP flyers in Maryland show Republicans Ehrlich and Steele running as Democrats. I suppose its fitting, since they've been running their whole campaign pretending to be Dems anyway. Also, early reports have Ehrlich worried about turnout in key areas for him. Chafee, on the other hand, continues to rise.

2:58 PM: Voting Democratic will get you raped by a scary Black man.

2:57 PM: Indiana may be the House bellweather. 3 hours until the polls close there, with 3 legitimate Democratic pickup opportunities.

2:55 PM: Steve Benen has a list of a few of the assorted nasty things happening around the country as people decide to vote.


Anonymous said...

I agree that whoever came up with the slogan "Punch Foley to Vote Negron" is a genius.

Anonymous said...

Doing a great job ! Keep it up

Anonymous said...

Wow!! Nice work!

Anonymous said...

"Mark Foley's seat is ours."


Anonymous said...

CNN link to the Virginia senate race is HERE

law monkey said...

i'm sure you're pretty happy about these results. :D

nice job on the live-blogging.