General Election, 4/6. Likely voters. MoE 4.5%
John McCain 48%
Barack Obama 43%
John McCain 56%
Hillary Clinton 36%
Now, normally I'd consider a poll like this akin to those ones which say Obama might lose Massachusetts in November -- just one of those quirky but utterly unfeasible things that pop up when you poll six months out of election day. But here, I actually see a there there. Democrats are experience a bit of a resurgence in the Big Sky state. Tester's upset Senate victory followed Brian Schweitzer's rise to the governor's mansion, where he has enjoyed a wildly popular reign in office. And Obama has shown real drawing power in the sparsely populated plains and rocky mountain region.
Ultimately, I don't think he'll win Montana, because to do so would require an investment of time and resources not worth its three electoral votes. But just the fact that it is even on the map shows how Democrats are expanding the playing field -- and exploiting a very favorable national climate.