Over the past few days, we've seen a spate of hitherto solid Israel allies in Europe announce they'll be recognizing the state of Palestine. France kicked things off, and it was swiftly followed by the UK and Canada. (There also has been an interesting wave of Arab states calling on Hamas to demilitarize and relinquish power).
I'm not going to comment here on the substance of the decision. Briefly, it is obvious that Palestinians deserve self-determination in a recognized state, and I'm unpersuaded by those who are arguing the move will backfire against the Palestinians. As for those who claim that recognition "rewards Hamas", I say that, if we are to think of this decision in those terms, it's better to see this as not as rewarding Hamas for 10/7, but as punishing Israel for its conduct after 10/7.
But that's not what I want to focus on here. Rather, I want to explore a different question: Why now? What made these countries take this step now?
Obviously, there is not one single answer to that. But in addition to some of the obvious factors -- increased sympathy for the Palestinian cause and increased frustration with Israeli intransigence chief among them -- I suggest an additional cause is that stepping out on Israel is a comparatively cheap and insulated way to symbolically repudiate Trump and Trumpism.
The Trump administration's pivot away from our traditional allies and alliances has been met with a justified mixture of alarm of fury from those we've abandoned. From escalating trade wars to threats of annexation, Trump has done unprecedented damage to America's global standing. People want to see their leaders punch back. But many of the most obvious avenues for retaliation come with substantial risks of their own. As idiotic and self-destructive as tariffs are for the United States, it remains the case that European countries must be careful and adroit in their own trade negotiations. Symbolism has its place there, but it can't be the whole story; missteps can exact real and serious tangible damage on one's own people.
But sticking it to Israel offers much of that same symbolic flouting of Trump, at a much lower risk. Most of the "damage" there, if there is any, will be externalized, not internalized. To the extent some countries might have been reluctant to step out against Israel for fear of alienating the United States, that ship has sailed; today these countries are looking for opportunities to signal they're standing up to the American madman. And while the Trump administration might make noises about retaliation, I think they're fighting on too many fronts for protecting Israel diplomatically to be a serious priority -- and that's even if one believes that Trump's Israel policy is based on sincere ideological commitment, which I don't. If one thinks Trump is just using "Israel" as an excuse to enact various forms of domestic repression, the ultimate disinterest can be doubled. In essence, Europe recognizing Palestine (a) looks increasingly justified and sensible given recent Israeli conduct and (b) offers an opportunity to be seen as standing up to Trump, in a context where tangible blowback is likely to be minimal. No wonder it's looking more attractive!
None of this should be seen as warranting any sympathy for Israel of course. They've chosen their course -- lashing themselves to the most extreme and vicious iteration of global rightwing ultranationalism -- and they have to live with the consequences. That's the risk of hitching your wagon entirely to a single powerful but widely loathed patron -- if daddy gets distracted, you're on your own and you've made yourself an awfully tempting target. Once again, when the right is done finding Israel useful, it will leave it in the wreckage.
3 comments:
I think flouting Trump is more of a cherry on top than a deciding factor, though. I think the necessary and sufficient driver for what Europe is doing really is that Israel's conduct is far different in scale from anything that they've done in the past. There's been a reasonable case that Israel's response to previous violence has been excessive, but it's been far from an open and shut case. And while there really hasn't been any reasonable defense of the West Bank's descent into full-blown apartheid, that's been a cold and simmering conflict rather than one involving large scale violence.
At this point, Gaza's been flattened entirely. Tens of thousands (possibly crossing into hundreds) are dead. Hamas's military capabilities were decimated a long time ago. Yet they're continuing to drop bombs and deny food aid. Counterfactuals are probably fruitless, but I think it's quite likely Israel would have lost a hypothetical second Biden or Harris administration by now. Whether that would have restrained their behavior is another perhaps pointless hypothetical, but, to the extent that Trump may matter, it's likely more about enabling the Israeli behavior that's lost the Europeans than about sticking it to Trump directly.
You get Europe entirely wrong. It's an inherently antisemitic continent. Western Europe has been waiting for this opportunity for a long time. The socialist countries of Eastern and Central Europe followed the"anti-Zionist" lead of the Soviet Union almost directly after the WWII, voting for the partition plan at the UN notwithstanding. The West didn't give in to the itch until now, although we could see the signs for a long time: embargo on Israel in 1967, closing the skies for any help to Israel in 1973, voting against Israel no matter what was discussed. After an Arab attack on a restaurant in Paris left five people killed, the reaction of the official France was that "today died two Jews and three innocents". When the Holocaust-denying "president of the State of Palestine" told the European Parliament how the Jews poisoned the wells, he was met by standing ovation. EU as an organisation and the member states separately pay billions to GONGOs denying the nationhood of the Jewish people. Put the changing demographic on top of that and you have a deadly mix. It would come sooner or later without October 7th - it has nothing to do with Trump.
I don't really think it's about Trump. That might just be a tendency of us Americans to think everything is about us.
Do I think this move would have happened under a Harris presidency? Yea, probably.
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