Can Huckabee Make a Move?

Commenting on the recent Republican candidate's debate in Iowa, Steve Benen said of Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee that he "continues to show impressive qualities. If he had any money and Republicans liked this guy, I might even worry about him." Indeed, a constant theme I've heard in the chatter about Huckabee is that a) Democrats think he'd be a strong foe in the general but b) he has been able to get absolutely no traction or momentum in his campaign.

But a recent Washington Post/ABC poll could show an opening. Taken July 31st in Iowa, it has Huckabee tied for fourth with John McCain, behind Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson (in that order). Romney is way out in front with 26%, Giuliani has 14, Thompson 13, and Huckabee and McCain 8%. If Huckabee beats McCain and takes fourth outright, could that give him the boost he needs to start getting some second looks from disaffected GOP supporters? Possibly. It's hard to get too excited about fourth place, except that it would mean that he beat the once-front-runner, John McCain to get there. If Thompson underperforms, part of the story could be Huckabee's better than expected performance--especially if he breaks into double-digits.

I've heard murmurings that Huckabee doesn't appeal to the right-wing base of the party--perhaps because he hasn't exactly drunk the anti-tax Kool Aid? But conservative majordomo Captain Ed is seeing the same pattern I am. So maybe the right is realizing that--faced with potential apostasy on abortion from Romney and Giuliani (and, with his lobbying background, Thompson)--a few votes to increase taxes isn't the worst thing in the world. In the early primaries, a lot of the story is not who won and who lost, but who did better than expected and who did worse. If Huckabee gets that "better-than-expected" story, he could see a big bounce. The question then becomes, in our accelerated primary schedule, can he capitalize on the momentum fast enough to catch up with the front-runners?