Wednesday, November 07, 2018

Election 2018: Predictions Results

I made a few election predictions this year -- not too many, but some. Time to hold myself accountable.


West Virginia: Manchin (D hold)
North Dakota: Cramer (R flip)

These were the two races I said I was "confident" in, and both turned out correct. But I also at least pointed to a lean in the following races:

Missouri: Hawley (R flip)
Nevada: Rosen (D flip)
Florida: Nelson (D hold)

And I suggested that Dems would split Arizona and Tennessee, though I wasn't sure which would go where -- but it looks like Democrats went 0 for 2 (albeit with Arizona still counting). Overall, I was slightly too bullish on Democratic prospects here.


CA-39: Cisneros (D flip)
CA-48: Rohrabacher (R hold)
FL-27: Shalala (D flip)
IA-04: King (R hold)
MN-01: Hagedorn (R flip)
MN-02: Craig (D flip)
MN-03: Phillips (D flip)
UT-04: McAdams (D flip)
VA-02: Taylor (R hold)
VA-10: Wexton (D flip)

A few of these races aren't done counting, but I'm going by current vote totals. I won't exactly say these were the boldest of choices, though the MN-01 pick is one I can be (sadly) proud of. My over/under for Democratic House seats was 220, which now looks slightly too bearish.


Alaska: Dunleavy (R sorta-flip)
Florida: Gillum (D flip)
Georgia: Kemp (R hold)
Illinois: Pritzker (D flip)
Iowa: Hubbell (D flip)
Kansas: Kobach (R hold)
Maryland: Hogan (R hold)
Minnesota: Walz (D hold)
Nevada: Sisolak (D flip)
Ohio: Cordray (D flip)
South Dakota: Noem (R hold)
Wisconsin: Evers (D flip)

Technically, Georgia still hasn't been called (but my prediction was that Kemp wins the run-off anyway). Overall, again, somewhat too bullish for Democrats -- though not be a ridiculous amount.

Finally, I predicted Jovanka Beckles to defeat Buffy Wicks in my home 15th Assembly District, but that turned out to be way off -- Wicks cruised to a double-digit victory.

Overall, though, I think this was a decent performance for me. I think all of my misses were at least within the realm of reason, and I got some tight races (MN-01, UT-04, WI-Gov, NV-Gov, NV-Sen GA-Gov) correct. I remain today at least as trustworthy as I was yesterday.

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