Kerry Slips

As you know, I've been very optimistic about Kerry's election chances in November, far more than most Democrats. However, recent poll data is disheartening.

Electoral-Vote.com reports that currently, Kerry is up 270 to 259 in the electoral college, with Colorado tied. Good news? Not really. That tally has Kerry winning both Nevada and Tennessee, neither of which I think is likely (though quite possible, especially in the latter case). It also has Bush winning Wisconsin, which I ALSO think is improbable, but tallying up the votes, and assuming that Wisconsin reverts to the Dems (but Colorado, Nevada, and Tennessee all go GOP) Kerry has 264 electoral votes and Bush has 274.

On the flip side, Kerry is within striking distance in FAR more states than Bush is. Bush can hope to flip Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico into the GOP column from 2000. That gives him 22 more electoral votes. By contrast, Kerry is challenging in Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, Arkansas, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, and West Virginia. That's 88 electoral votes. And while all of Kerry's big gun states (California, New York, even Pennsylvania and Michigan) appear somewhat safe for the moment, Bush has to fight tooth and nail to defend both Ohio and Florida, both which will be getting alot of Democratic (and Republican) airtime.