Even with her tea-party-affiliated wing of the GOP in ascendancy, Sarah Palin continues to decline, with over half of Americans (52%, to be precise) viewing her unfavorably. Just 40% have a favorable view of the former half-term Alaska Governor.
Better yet, for Democrats at least, is that her support is growing more polarized -- she continues to register gains amongst Republican voters, but these are counterbalanced by her growing toxicity with independents. All of which spells a Palin nomination for President in 2012 -- followed by a crushing defeat by Barack Obama.
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While she is definitely not knowledgeable about world affairs and surely not experienced (and, in both ways, is just like our pathetic president), she does seem to be politically rather brilliant. To me, I cannot imagine she wants to be president. I think she wants to be king maker among the conservatives, something she seems to be quite well suited for and something she can accomplish while laughing, as she is doing, all the way to the bank. So, I do not buy your view that she will be the Republican nominee because I doubt she will seek it.
I know bloggers get, like, brownie points for predicting the next twenty years of political history, but this is a complicated process. It ain't a Senate race anyone can just load a pickup truck with some flags and walk away with.
There's a whole big party that will be down ticket from the presidential nominee. Self-interest dictates they will do almost anything to avert the disaster of that nominee being Palin. Many big Democrats did their best to dump Hillary Clinton out of similar concerns, as there was a time when her approval ratings were nothing to write home about either... which itself goes to show that the numbers you're talking about are not set in stone and don't just swing one way.
Conveniently for the establishment, Citizens United will let the various interest groups who also want to win have their say.
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