Today's recall elections in Wisconsin are starting to wrap up. As of now, three Republicans (Sheila Harsdorf, Rob Cowles, and Luther Olsen) have held onto their seats, while two (Dan Kapanke and Randy Hopper) are out. One more seat (Alberta Darling's) is still up in the air, but it looks like once again Waukesha County will be the death of us.
So, we won two out of six, three if we're lucky. Obviously, this affects the narrative considerably, because three is the magic number needed to take back the State Senate.
But regardless, I think the recalls might have achieved one thing -- spooking some GOP caucus members. After all, there are quite a few state senators who were not subject to recall this time around (there is a minimum amount of time they must serve after their election before they can be recalled). And many of them are reasonably vulnerable -- at least six are in seats more liberal than all those challenged today, save Dan Kapanke's. They have to know that they're next in line.
Will it cause them to moderate a bit? I don't know. Republicans tend to be better at whipping their wobblies into line. But it can't hurt. And even if we don't take back the chamber, it definitely gives Democrats far more leverage.
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David, I don't have a dog in this fight. I don't live in WI, I'm not a fan of Walker, and I am a libertarian and not a Tea Party cheer-leader. That said, I have to comment. You said:
But regardless, I think the recalls might have achieved one thing -- spooking some GOP caucus members. After all, there are quite a few state senators who were not subject to recall this time around (there is a minimum amount of time they must serve after their election before they can be recalled). And many of them are reasonably vulnerable -- at least six are in seats more liberal than all those challenged today, save Dan Kapanke's. They have to know that they're next in line.
Spooling some GOPers??? Really????
They WON! And I would expect that the farther out you get from the passing of the legislation that sparked this in the first place, you'll have less voter enthusiasm than you got last night in a loss.
I know you're disgusted at the whole turn of events concerning Walker et al, but do you really intend on throwing more resources ($$$$) to support a strategy that doesn't seem to give the results you wish?
Personally, if I was a political adviser to the Democratic party in WI, I would implore them to concentrate on regular elections.
Just like the idiotic calls here and there to have Obama impeached for... pretty much breathing, the recalls will start to look more and more petty and result in even greater losses.
I disagree. The dems netted two seats last night. Would three have been better? Yes. But 2 is hardly losing. And remember that, except Kapanke, these were red seats. 6 seats that could be targeted in 2012 are bluer than the one Hopper lost.
Sites I've read said that extrapolating out, these results would lead to a successful Walker recall (again, these are mostly red districts, so narrowly losing them = winning big statewide). Obviously, the enthusiasm for doing so will dip in absence of any more crazy legislation. But that's the point! He and those six vulnerable GOPers either have to tack center or risk reenflaming an electorate that has just shown it is willing to throw then out.
I'm not sure they have much else they can throw out there. Seems like they got what they wanted.... But then, there is always the over-reach. Most politicians simply can't resist the urge... Moth to a flame, and all that.
I think it's unwise... But we'll see what will happen.
PS. Are you familiar with a guy by the name of Dan Carlin? He does a couple of fine podcasts. On his latest "Common Sense" he talked about the erosion of jobs, and the politicians shifting from wanting to create "good" jobs, those that pay well and advance the middle class, to simply creating jobs, which is geared to entry level jobs, which keep the middle class poor. He notes that this is the result of the failure of both "trickle down" economics and "free trade" economic policies. I don't know if you'll like everything he talks about, but at least he's talking about it.
http://www.dancarlin.com/disp.php/cs
Don Carlin seems to be pursuing the Democratic strategy against Perry: sure, Texas has jobs, but they're either ones for which the out-of-state companies he courted bring in people from out-of-state (so not actually creating a net increase in jobs for the U.S.), or they're jobs in-state people get that pay crap and have no advancement opportunities.
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