What's the Matter With Nevada?

Most of the polls I've seen in Nevada have had narrow Republican leads in both the Governor's race and, more distressingly, in the Senate contest. Nevada had been a state that seemed to be trending blue, so this is especially disheartening in a year Democrats can't afford extra bad news.

One element I've seen increasing chatter about in the past few weeks is that the Nevada Democratic Party has been doing a terrible job of rallying voters to the polls. The state party had a notoriously good turnout machine that was the legacy of former Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid, but Reid's team was dumped last year after a slate endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America took over the organization in 2021. Quite a few people have suggested that the new DSA party leaders have let Reid's work wither, and the result may be the loss of a Senate seat we can ill afford.

Of course, this is all chatter. Putting aside that the election isn't over until it's over, these complaints could be leftover sour grapes from the changing of the Nevada party guard. It's not as if Catherine Cortez Masto would've coasted to victory even under the best of circumstances, after all. So I'd like to hear more. 

Still, it does not strike me as implausible, based on what little I know if the internal Democratic politics in Nevada, that the new regime would (by arrogance or incompetence) run the party apparatus into the ground. Precisely because they often take it as an article of faith that they are the true voice of the masses, DSA sorts sometimes have a dangerous habit of overlooking the gritty work of actual building mass democratic power (see also: losing to a write-in campaign after successfully winning a Democratic primary for the Buffalo mayorship). If they end up costing the party a winnable Senate race, that would be a serious black eye and a near-unforgivable sin.

Net Metering in Nevada

At Vox, David Roberts has a really good piece on the status of "rooftop solar" programs in Nevada. What I particularly like about this post is that it gives a fair shake to the problems such programs cause for incumbent utilities, even though Roberts (like myself) is broadly sympathetic to rooftop solar and so opposes utility efforts to stifle them. If you're interested in the future of renewable power and electricity markets, and want to get a perspective on the situation that doesn't gloss over the real transition problems that exist (often called "stranded costs"), I highly recommend you take a gander.

But It's a Proud, Family-Owned Brothel

PPP: Sixty-six percent of Nevada Republicans support legalized brothels (same percentage as Democrats), but only 20% of them support same-sex marriage. Now that's some family values!

A Year of Fundamentals

I feel like this is going to be an interesting election year. On the one hand, all the fundamentals favor the GOP. The economy is down. The Presidential Party normally loses off-year elections. The Democratic Party won a ton of marginal seats in the 2006 and 2008 wave elections, and those seats would be difficult to hang onto under any circumstances. The terrain is very Republican-friendly.

Political scientists are generally rather sneering about the idea that the daily political play-by-play actually effects election results all that much. It's fundamental, macro issues (most notably the economy) which drive results.

Yet, this year, we might see a test of that hypothesis, given just how far to the right the Republican Party has decided to drift. It's not quite like the Republican Party decided to run a whole slate of Alvin Greenes, but it's close.

In state after state -- Kentucky, Nevada, Florida, and most recently Alaska -- GOP primary voters have spurned mainstream, electable candidates for folks on the furthest of the right-ward fringe. And it's turning states that should have been easy wins for the GOP into bona fide targets for the Democratic Party. Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) should be dead in the water, but for the fact that 66% of Sharron Angle's own supporters regret having nominated her. Joe Miller's apparent knock-off of incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has possibly put that Senate seat into play. In the Florida gubernatorial race, former prohibitive favorite Bill McCollum couldn't get past Rick Scott in the primary, and Democratic nominee Alex Sink has to be smiling given that McCollum apparently won't endorse Scott. A similar story prevails in the Florida Senate race, as Charlie Crist's independent bid after getting forced out of the GOP primary by Marco Rubio has thrown the entire race into flux (for the record, I'm a Charlie Crist fan, and have been since well before he dropped the GOP label). And so on and so forth.

So this is an interesting year. It really tests the question -- are fundamentals everything? Are there candidates so extreme that they can -- not just on a case-by-case basis, but systemwide -- check against the natural political gravity which is pulling hard against the Democrats this year?

It'll be interesting to find out. (Although I can't say I'm excited. Call me risk-averse, but I'd prefer a strong chance of mainstream Republicans winning than even a 50-50 chance of some of the nuts we're talking about getting their hands on the levers of power. Sharron Angle may have given Harry Reid a breath of life, but it also means we have a non-negligible prospect of Senator Sharron Angle. Scary.).

It's Vegas, Baby!

From The Washington Post's coverage of the Nevada caucuses:

Early entrance polling showed Clinton leading among women, older voters and those who prized experience while Obama held an advantage among black voters and those who valued a need for chance, according to the Associated Press.

Barack Obama: You feeling lucky, punk?

Also, with only 39 precincts left to report (out of nearly 1,800), it looks as if Ron Paul will take second place in Nevada, narrowly edging out John McCain. Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee likewise looks like he'll barely beat Fred Thompson for fourth.

Racism ftw!

Go Ron Paul!

Let's recap: Major Ron Paul related news since Michigan? He is, if not himself a racist, tied to a huge network of White Supremacists. Results in the first caucus since Michigan? Ron Paul locked in a dogfight for second place with John McCain.

Anything that causes more chaos in the GOP primary is alright with me.

Go scary racist White dude! Take second in Nevada!