Body Swappers, Part II

Former Obama supporter ex-Rep. Artur Davis' (D-AL, though he's since switched parties) turn to Mitt Romney is well known. I noted at the time he seemed to be crossing the opposite path of former Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R, now I). And wouldn't you know it if Crist has just come out and endorsed Obama for re-election.

The switch is pretty much complete at this point, I'd say.

Body Swappers

Wouldn't it be awesome if former Florida Governor Charlie Crist (then-R, now-I) and Alabama ex-Rep. Artur Davis (then-D, now-R) ran against each other for something in the future?

This came to mind after Crist came out against the voter ID fraud in the Washington Post, and delivered an unapologetic defense of democratic values and access to the ballot box. It was precisely apostasies like this, of course, that caused him to lose what had seemed a sure-shot bid to the US Senate as a Republican in 2010 to the tea-flavored Marco Rubio. Davis, of course, originally showcased his GOP-curiosity by jumping on the voter fraud bandwagon, though he was outraged when media critics made unreasonable demands of him like "give examples of when this has ever happened".

I had liked the old Davis, which is part of the reason the new one is so risible -- he's smart enough to know that "voter fraud" is a fraud, but he's also smart enough to know that jumping on that train is a fast way to leap to prominence amongst the GOP. Crist, by contrast, I liked even before he dropped the "R", and of course, I like him even better now. But still, they do seem to be walking similar paths (in opposing directions).

A Year of Fundamentals

I feel like this is going to be an interesting election year. On the one hand, all the fundamentals favor the GOP. The economy is down. The Presidential Party normally loses off-year elections. The Democratic Party won a ton of marginal seats in the 2006 and 2008 wave elections, and those seats would be difficult to hang onto under any circumstances. The terrain is very Republican-friendly.

Political scientists are generally rather sneering about the idea that the daily political play-by-play actually effects election results all that much. It's fundamental, macro issues (most notably the economy) which drive results.

Yet, this year, we might see a test of that hypothesis, given just how far to the right the Republican Party has decided to drift. It's not quite like the Republican Party decided to run a whole slate of Alvin Greenes, but it's close.

In state after state -- Kentucky, Nevada, Florida, and most recently Alaska -- GOP primary voters have spurned mainstream, electable candidates for folks on the furthest of the right-ward fringe. And it's turning states that should have been easy wins for the GOP into bona fide targets for the Democratic Party. Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) should be dead in the water, but for the fact that 66% of Sharron Angle's own supporters regret having nominated her. Joe Miller's apparent knock-off of incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has possibly put that Senate seat into play. In the Florida gubernatorial race, former prohibitive favorite Bill McCollum couldn't get past Rick Scott in the primary, and Democratic nominee Alex Sink has to be smiling given that McCollum apparently won't endorse Scott. A similar story prevails in the Florida Senate race, as Charlie Crist's independent bid after getting forced out of the GOP primary by Marco Rubio has thrown the entire race into flux (for the record, I'm a Charlie Crist fan, and have been since well before he dropped the GOP label). And so on and so forth.

So this is an interesting year. It really tests the question -- are fundamentals everything? Are there candidates so extreme that they can -- not just on a case-by-case basis, but systemwide -- check against the natural political gravity which is pulling hard against the Democrats this year?

It'll be interesting to find out. (Although I can't say I'm excited. Call me risk-averse, but I'd prefer a strong chance of mainstream Republicans winning than even a 50-50 chance of some of the nuts we're talking about getting their hands on the levers of power. Sharron Angle may have given Harry Reid a breath of life, but it also means we have a non-negligible prospect of Senator Sharron Angle. Scary.).

It's Tough Being Meek

I may have spoken too soon regarding the impact of Marco Rubio's recent surge in his Republican primary Senate race against Charlie Crist. Though the conventional wisdom held that Meek would had a better shot against the far-right Rubio than the centrist and popular Crist, a new poll has Rubio with a considerably wider lead over Meek than Crist does -- mostly because Rubio has nailed down the support of the right more effectively.

I still think in the context of a general election race, the conventional wisdom is right that Meek is better off against Rubio than Crist, but this does give one pause.

Conspiracy Theories Abound in the Modern GOP

A new PPP poll asked voters whether they believed Barack Obama actually won the 2008 presidential election, or whether "ACORN stole it for him." 62% of voters think Obama legitimately won, versus 26% for the ACORN conspiracy theory.

Among Republicans, however, only 27% say Obama actually won the race, with 52% -- an outright majority -- saying that ACORN stole it, and 21% are undecided. Among McCain voters, the breakdown is 31%-49%-20%. By comparison, independents weigh in at 72%-18%-10%, and Democrats are 86%-9%-4%.

As TPM and Matt Yglesias point out, the comparison to Democratic discontent over Florida in 2000 doesn't really hold -- not just because the difference in the magnitude (less than 600 votes in Florida, versus a 9.5 million vote edge for Obama nationwide), but also because the Florida controversy stemmed from a well-observed and legitimately disputed controversy over how to count imperfect ballots (butterflies, hanging chads, the whole she-bang).*

Meanwhile, Research 2000 put a poll in the field showing right-wing star Marco Rubio surging against wildly popular (statewide, anyway) but moderate Governor Charlie Crist in a GOP primary for the Senate seat -- showing a whopping net 43 point improvement from the last R2K poll. And this is with Rubio at only 50% name ID and with no money spent on advertising yet.

The poll also asked GOP voters whether they believed Obama was born in the US. Only 35% said yes (29% no, 36% not sure). Break that down for Crist and Rubio voters, and a distinct pattern emerges. 73% of Republicans who believe Obama was born in the US go for the more moderate Crist, with only 16% for Rubio. Among birthers, it flips to 31% for Crist and 54% for Rubio. There is, in other words, a pretty clear linkage between the resurgent conservative base currently driving the party and adherence to some pretty ridiculous conspiracy theories about the President. Sayeth Kevin Drum:

This is craziness. I could understand 10 or 15% believing this. That's sort of the base level of people who will believe any nutty idea. But 52%? Someone in the GOP needs to take a deep breath and a long look in the mirror, and then try to rescue their party. Condoning insanity is not a long-term electoral strategy.

This is 9/11 trutherism turned into a legitimate political force. It's a scary thing to behold.

* My own feeling about Florida is that I believe more people in the state filled out a ballot believing they had cast a vote for Al Gore. Whether there was any fair or manageable standard for counting ballots that could have reflected that decision is unknowable, however. The Washington Post's re-recount indicates that Gore's own litigation strategy would have caused him to lose, but a recount of all ballots statewide would have given him the winning edge.

Crist Tries to Diversify Courts

I didn't know that Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R) had tried to reject a slate of candidates for a state judicial seat because the list was all-White. Unfortunately, the Florida Supreme Court said Governor Crist did not have the discretion to do so. That's unfortunate, but I'm impressed by Crist's instincts -- a continuation of his excellent work on felon disenfranchisement. He's facing a tough Senate primary fight with far-right insurgent Marco Rubio, and this probably won't help him there. But if he survives (and I expect him to), Crist is positioning himself (along with Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman) as a potential leader of the serious and inclusive wing of the GOP.

Who Could Excite the Right?

The fact that Republican primary voters are being presented with an unbelievably weak field is nothing that hasn't already been said. Every conservative I've talked to, outside a few moderates, is unhappy with their selection. And why wouldn't they? Giuliani is a thrice-married social liberal who dressed in drag, McCain is a party heretic, Thompson is an empty suit, and "multiple choice" Mitt--aside from being a Mormon--has twisted and turned on a few too many issues to really have gained the trust of the base.

So I got to thinking: Who's on the Republican bench that could get the party excited? Some of them might not have a prayer of running, for any number of reasons (one of which is the probability that the Republicans will get thrashed in 2008). But who are some folks who could genuinely get the party excited, in terms of both policy and electability?

Here's a list of five people I think could fit the bill, either as saviors for this cycle, or more likely, as rising stars who will jump in the next time around.

1) Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN): This was the only name that sprung immediately to mind. He's a mid-westerner, so he can run well in Rust Belt states like Ohio. Lugar ran for President in 1996, though he didn't make much headway--still, you have to think he looks significantly better to the base now than he did back then. He's also well-respected by people on both sides of the aisle, known to be substantive on policy issues, and considered a deacon on foreign policy specifically in the Senate. The only question is whether or not he's been too wobbly on Iraq for Republican voter's tastes. However, he's probably got the highest national profile of any of the bunch, right now.

2) Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL): Like Jeb Bush but without the "Bush"! Crist easily won the governorship of Florida in a bad Republican year. Since then, he's displayed a surprising maverick streak, but done so while maintaining his connections with the base. His surprise move to work for felon re-enfranchisement could help him gather some support in the Black community--something the GOP has been desperate for for years. And while Attorney General of Florida, he largely stayed out of the Schiavo mess, which might still raise some hackles on the far right, but at this point probably will be a net boon.

3) Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA): He's a conservative hell-raiser, but that isn't necessarily a stroke against him nowadays. He knocked off then-Senator Max Cleland (D-GA) in 2002, an upset stoked by one of the nastiest campaigns in recent memory. If Republicans want to come off the ropes swinging, this could be their guy.

4) Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN): For whatever reason, I still feel like the two-term governor from Minnesota requires more seasoning before he hits the national stage. Nonetheless, he was probably the most vulnerable incumbent GOP governor in 2006 to keep his seat, and he did so against a strong candidate with flying in colors in a state that is trending blue. He's been floated for a VP slot this cycle, but regardless of whether he gets it, I already feel like his hat is in the ring for 2012.

5) Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN): He's run for President before, twice, albeit not very successfully. Those two campaigns seemed to turn him off on politics, but he was able to be persuaded to run for Senate in 2002, and since then has steadily risen in the GOP party hierarchy. He's solid, he's loyal, and he's paid his dues. It wouldn't drive anybody wild, but he'd be someone the party could unite behind.

Reenfranchisement

New Florida Governor Charlie Crist has come out in favor of at least the limited restoration of voting rights for convicted felons.

Crist's predecessor, fellow Republican Jeb Bush, opposed automatic restoration. But Crist has called the failure to restore rights a legacy of the era of "unjust" anti-black Jim Crow laws of the racially segregated south.

Florida has one of the toughest disenfranchisement laws in the country. These laws tend to concentrate themselves in deep south states, where they were promulgated to dilute Black voting strength. See J.F. Barbour, Jr., Note and Comment, 8 Miss. L.J. 196, 202 (1935)

In specifying those crimes which would disqualify a citizen from exercise of the privilege of voting, upon conviction, the compilers of the Mississippi Constitution listed those offenses which the irresponsible and impulsive class of uneducated Negroes are most prone to commit....

Barbour's article was written in the wake of the Scottsboro decision, explaining why the Supreme Court ruling would not threaten Southern efforts to disenfranchise Black voters and keep them off jury service.

Today, felon disenfranchisement laws survive because the last thing these Republican-dominated states want is more poor and Black people voting (they'd likely vote Democratic). It is supremely difficult to convince any politician to stand up for the rights of Black ex-cons (not the most politically popular group), much less one for whom it is not in his political interest.

So, kudos to Governor Crist--for making this an issue, and for not letting it drop after the campaign ended. Via Blackprof.