Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Guns as Escalators, Guns as Deescalators

Professor McGonagall's face was pinched and angry. "You are not to use the Time-Turner in that fashion, Mr. Potter! Is the concept of secrecy not something that you understand?"

"They don't know how I did it! They just think I can do really weird things by snapping my fingers! I've done other weird stuff that can't be done with Time-Turners even, and I'll do more stuff like that, and this case won't even stand out! I had to do it, Professor!"

"You did not have to do it!" snapped Professor McGonagall. "All you needed to do was get this anonymous Slytherin back on the ground and the wands put away! You could have challenged him to a game of Exploding Snap but no, you had to use the Time-Turner in a flagrant and unnecessary manner!"

"It was all I could think of! I don't even know what Exploding Snap is, they wouldn't have accepted a game of chess and if I'd picked arm-wresting I would have lost!"

"Then you should have picked wrestling! "

Harry blinked. "But then I'd have lost -"

Harry stopped.

Professor McGonagall was looking very angry.

"I'm sorry, Professor McGonagall," Harry said in a small voice. "I honestly didn't think of that, and you're right, I should have, it would have been brilliant if I had, but I just didn't think of that at all..."

-- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, Chapter 17

"Mr. Potter, you have taken to using the Time-Turner as your solution to everything, often very foolishly so. You used it to get back a Remembrall. You vanished from a closet in a fashion apparent to other students, instead of going back after you were out and getting me or someone else to come and open the door."

From the look on Harry's face he hadn't thought of that.

"And more importantly," she said, "you should have simply sat in Professor Snape's class. And watched. And left at the end of class. As you would have done if you had not possessed a Time-Turner. There are some students who cannot be entrusted with Time-Turners, Mr. Potter. You are one of them. I am sorry."

"But I need it!" Harry blurted. "What if there are Slytherins threatening me and I have to escape? It keeps me safe -"

"Every other student in this castle runs the same risk, and I assure you that they survive. No student has died in this castle for fifty years. Mr. Potter, you will hand over your Time-Turner and do so now."

-- HPMOR, Chapter 18

"Harry Potter," Professor Quirrell said.

"Yes," Harry said, his voice hoarse.

"What precisely did you do wrong today, Mr. Potter?"

Harry felt like he was going to throw up. "I lost my temper."

"That is not precise," said Professor Quirrell. "I will describe it more exactly. There are many animals which have what are called dominance contests. They rush at each other with horns - trying to knock each other down, not gore each other. They fight with their paws - with claws sheathed. But why with their claws sheathed? Surely, if they used their claws, they would stand a better chance of winning? But then their enemy might unsheathe their claws as well, and instead of resolving the dominance contest with a winner and a loser, both of them might be severely hurt."

Professor Quirrell gaze seemed to come straight out at Harry from the repeater screen. "What you demonstrated today, Mr. Potter, is that - unlike those animals who keep their claws sheathed and accept the results - you do not know how to lose a dominance contest. When a Hogwarts professor challenged you, you did not back down. When it looked like you might lose, you unsheathed your claws, heedless of the danger. You escalated, and then you escalated again. It started with a slap at you from Professor Snape, who was obviously dominant over you. Instead of losing, you slapped back and lost ten points from Ravenclaw. Soon you were talking about leaving Hogwarts. The fact that you escalated even further in some unknown direction, and somehow won at the end, does not change the fact that you are an idiot."

[...]

"The next time, Mr. Potter, that you choose to escalate a contest rather than lose, you may lose all the stakes you place on the table. I cannot guess what they were today. I can guess that they were far, far too high for the loss of ten House points." 

-- HPMOR, Chapter 19

Yesterday, the New York Post ran a story about an incident in Florida where two drivers got into a rolling gunfight with one another, exchanging fire that injured both drivers' daughters (a 14-year old and 5-year old girl). While both drivers were initially charged with attempted murder, one driver -- the one who opened fire first -- had the charges dropped after prosecutors decided he had a valid self-defense claim since the other driver was the initial aggressor (allegedly trying to "run him off the road" and hurling a water bottle at his truck).

Hale tried to run Allison [the driver who had the charges dropped] — who was driving a Nissan Murano with two passengers — off Highway 1 near Calahan with his Dodge Ram pickup truck, which had four passengers, police said.

At one point, Hale drove alongside the Murano, rolled down his window and began shouting at Allison to pull over as Hale’s wife made an obscene gesture.

Allison rolled down his window to shout back when a plastic water bottle was thrown from the truck into the SUV, according to the Nassau County Sheriff’s Office in Florida.

[...] 

[Then, Allison] fired a semiautomatic handgun at [Hale], hitting Hale’s daughter, who was sitting in the back seat, and then sped off, police said.

When Hale realized the girl was hit, he sped closer to the SUV and began firing several rounds from his semiautomatic — one of which struck the 14-year-old girl. 

I was thinking about this incident, and to a lesser extent the recent case in Texas where a man was convicted of killing a protester who allegedly brandished an assault rifle at his car after the shooter reportedly drove his car into the crowd (this is the case where the Governor has promised to pardon the killer), and thinking "what would happen if none of the parties had guns?"

In the Florida incident, I do not think -- even accepting that Allison was "acting in self-defense" -- "thank goodness Allison had a gun -- who knows what would have happened if he wasn't armed!" My strong intuition -- albeit not one that can be proven -- is that if Allison was not armed, this incident would have resolved as a "normal" case of road rage, and in particular, we would not have seen two young girls be shot in their parents' cars. To be clear: Allison seems to have been the victim of terrible, threatening behavior by Hale. But the presence of guns (and it was Allison who fired the first shot) escalated the situation. It did not keep anybody involved safe; it made a bad situation far, far worse.

If Allison had no gun, the most likely result is that he would have just had to endure Hale's predatory road rage (at least until a filing a police report later). There is something disconcerting, I imagine, to saying, in effect, that this would have been the right choice. It entails, to be very colloquial about it, agreeing to "lose" to a predator. Allison firing at Hale represents an (escalatory) effort to fight back; to continue to resist; to win. Should Allison have "picked wrestling", even though it allowed Hale's predations to prevail (at least in the immediate moment)?

I think the answer is yes. At the very least, it's the choice that doesn't result in two children being shot. More to the point, it's the choice that millions of Americans who don't have guns would have had to have made in that same situation. Millions of Americans go through life without guns. When we encounter a road rage scenario like the one in Florida, we can't use a gun "in self-defense" because we don't have one. But as much as it might be humiliating or scary or infuriating to feel impotent in that scenario, it seems clearly better than what happened here when guns did enter the picture.

Proponents of gun rights as a means of self-defense imagine a template case as a scenario where a person is threatened and, had they not had the gun, they would be subjected to severe bodily injury or death. The availability of the gun "deescalates" (that's not quite the right word, but I don't have a better one) the situation insofar as, instead of the innocent victim being severely injured and/or killed, it is the wrongful perpetrator that suffers that fate.

But there are no doubt some number of circumstances -- and I don't know how one could measure it, but I suspect it's a greater number -- where the availability of a gun, even under the "self-defense" rubric, does not deescalate but escalates a situation. A scenario that would have resolved as a lower-level indignity or violation becomes one where someone is shot or killed.

Sometimes, we might say that for some sorts of criminal activity, a violent response is justified and socially beneficial even if it is in some sense escalatory (e.g., many argue this for a homeowner shooting a burglar, notwithstanding the fact that robbery is a "lesser" violation than shooting someone). Nonetheless, when I think back to the occasions where I've been a victim of violent crime, I do not think "if only I had a gun." To the contrary, whether or not on those occasions I would have been legally permitted to "stand my ground", I think it is absolutely for the best that I did not blow away either the homeless man or the drunk college students who assaulted me. It is clear to me that in those circumstances, I should have done what I actually did do, which is pick myself up and walk away. I should have "lost".

Not everyone agrees with me -- a law school classmate told me that if he was shoved to the ground as I would, he would "legitimately fear for his life" and would be justified in responding with lethal force. Perhaps if he had been in my shoes and armed, four people who we know did not need to die would be dead. I lacked the means (or desire) to respond with lethal force, and the result was the people who we know did not need to die, didn't die. Where the presence of guns converts more scenarios like that -- ones where we could just walk away -- into ones where someone or multiple someones are shot or killed, that is I think a clear net loss for society.

Again, I don't know how to measure this. But it seems clear that, just as there are some circumstances where having and using a gun averts the more tragic outcome; there are other circumstances where having and using a gun causes the more tragic outcome -- and (this is important) even under cases which fall under the rubric of self-defense.

The opening excerpts from Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality (which I highly recommend) are about instances where Harry is, in a brute moral sense, right to resist. Professor Snape and other Slytherins are wronging him, abusing him, in a manner that in a just world he should not have to tolerate. And yet, the moral of these passages is that reckless escalation even in response to injustice or wrongdoing has immense risks; it puts even more stakes on the table that aren't always justified or commiserate to the underlying, initial abuse. Hale seems to have badly abused Allison. But Allison could not just let it lie; he escalated dramatically by firing a gun from a moving vehicle into another car. The danger that posed -- to Allison's own family, to Hale's, to other travelers or passers-by -- is almost incalculable, and hardly seems proportionate to the (very real) wrong and abuse Allison endured. If Allison lacked a gun, he would not have been able to initiate that escalation. And at least two children would not have been shot.

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