Tuesday, December 07, 2010

House Committee Chairs Released

Here's the list of who will be chairing the various House Committees.
Agriculture: Frank D. Lucas (Okla.)

Appropriations: Hal Rogers (Ky.)

Armed Services: Howard P. "Buck" McKeon (Calif.)

Budget: Paul Ryan (Wis.)

Education and Labor: John Kline (Minn.)

Energy and Commerce: Fred Upton Mich.)

Financial Services: Spencer Bachus (Ala.)

Foreign Affairs: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Fla.)

Homeland Security: Peter T. King (N.Y.)

Judiciary: Lamar S. Smith (Texas)

Natural Resources: Doc Hastings (Wash.)

Oversight & Government Reform: Darrell Issa (Calif.)

Science & Technology: Ralph M. Hall (Texas)

Small Business: Sam Graves (Mo.)

Transportation & Infrastructure: John L. Mica (Fla.)

Veterans: Jeff Miller (Fla.)

Ways & Means: Dave Camp (Mich.)

Obviously, no Republican whose in a position to become a Committee chair is going to be someone who I'd truly like to see in the position. But there is some silver lining. John Kline on Education and Labor isn't bad -- I saw him at the first congressional hearing on employment discrimination against the transgendered, and he wasn't bad. Fred Upton on Energy and Commerce is notable because it means Rep. Joe "I'd like to apologize to BP" Barton (R-TX) isn't chairing it, which can only be a good thing.

On the other hand, there are, as expected, some catastrophes. All signs point to Darrell Issa leading a 1990s style witch-hunt against the Obama administration -- something all the more dangerous because Issa is a very smart, very effective, and very incisive Congressman. Putting Peter King -- the man who publicly wondered if Eric Holder is on the side of al-Qaeda (rich given that King is one of the few congressman who did, in fact, openly ally with actual terrorists) -- is a joke. In Lamar Smith, we have an extremist who once spoke at a conference where speakers advocating executing American judges who were insufficiently right-wing.

And then there's all the rest. Paul Ryan has a reputation for wonkishness, but it's not one that seems grounded in any actual mastery of economic facts, so much as it's grading on a massive, massive curve accounting for the anti-intellectual bent of the GOP mainstream. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen will insure that our policy towards Cuba will stay on the same failed trajectory it's been on for the past 40 years (and if that means sabotaging Israel, so be it), but other than amount of rhetoric devoted to the issue it's probably no real change. Spencer Bachus at least had the balls to call out Sarah Palin for something.

Monday, December 06, 2010

Still Here

Finals studying is taking a lot out of me, along with other annoyances on my plate. Stuff has been accumulating on my browser, but I haven't even mustered the energy for a roundup.

* * *

Texas conservatives are unhappy that their uber-conservative speaker also happens to be a Jew.

New comments by Helen Thomas about how we're all owned by the "Zionists" have prompted Detroit-Mercy to withdraw their sponsorship of a diversity award named after her.

For the last time, progressive Zionists aren't Zionists in spite of our progressivism, but because of it.

An interesting exploration of Columbia's local Palestinian solidarity chapter, and how its understanding of "solidarity" means that it institutionally refuses to communicate with the local campus Hillel (individual members are free to talk as they please, but the group has ruled out any official dialogue events to try and better understand the positions or sentiments of the Columbia Jewish community).

As time passes, it shouldn't be surprising that the taboos which might have once precluded Israel's fascist parties from associating with European fascist parties are falling away.

Israel's woefully inadequate fire responsive services may be the "Katrina moment" that finally causes the majority to recognize just how much of their resources are being squandered on Haredi subsidies and settler fantasies.

Look, it's not that complicated: Your judges are "activist", mine are "engaged".

Friday, December 03, 2010

Staring History Down

Regarding continued GOP intransigence over the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell, Matt Yglesias asks:
I really wonder what’s happening, subjectively, inside the heads of people who oppose repealing Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. Do any of them think they’re on the right side of history here? That people are going to look back from 2040 and say “if only we’d listened to John McCain thirty years ago?”

I've often wondered the same thought myself. I can't imagine that any but the most deluded souls are unaware where this debate is heading, or how it will be evaluated 30 years hence. The opponents of DADT repeal have to be aware that they will be considered villains by history.

In a sense, that makes it a little admirable (odd as that is to say). There is something to be said for looking history in the eye and standing on principle, knowing full well you are forever committing your name to disgrace. For the people whose opposition to gay equality is genuine and heartfelt, there is something rather amazing at their willingness to take on such a role. I disagree with such people stridently, and will do my utmost to ensure that they are inscribed as villains sooner rather than later, but such deep commitment is a rare thing.

Of course, that only applies to those whose opposition stems from heartfelt commitment. For those who act this way for the sake of short-term political expediency -- or worse, pettiness and spite -- it's just sad.

A Commentary on John Derbyshire

It's well-established that John Derbyshire is a schmuck of the highest order. A man who once told the UPenn Black Law Students Association that they were biologically inferior and used the Virginia Tech massacre to chide the victims for not reenacting his favorite Rambo fantasies, his latest endeavor is criticizing George W. Bush's efforts to combat AIDS in Africa.

Hence why this comprehensive evisceration by Peter Wehner at Commentary is so pleasurable to read. What I like about it is that it hits Derbyshire from two very important angles. First, it castigates him for how he "seems eager to celebrate his callousness, as if it were a sign of manliness and tough-mindedness." That's not a sign of toughness, it's the sign of a sociopath. But because so much of this ill-informed pseudo-machismo is based off the notion that "bleeding hearts" just aren't attuned to the "real world" and the "actual consequences" of their efforts, Wehner also simply annihilates Derbyshire on the facts regarding AIDS in Africa, the salience of our reform efforts, and why it is in America's interest to do so (while noting that even if it wasn't in some hyper-narrow sense of "interest", there is no intrinsic reason why America can't or shouldn't be interested in alleviating a massive pandemic catastrophe and saving millions of lives at modest cost).

Wednesday, December 01, 2010

French Connection

A new study reveals intense bias against French Muslims of Senegalese descent in the French job market (and a milder one against Christians of Senegalese descent). The study was modeled off the famous Are Emily and Greg More Employable than Lakisha and Jamal? study, which revealed similar (racial) biases in American labor markets. However, this topic is considerably less-studied in France because of that nation's near-fanatical devotion to "colorblindness" and the pure secular state. As this study pointedly demonstrates, that policy is an abject failure.

TSA Ain't Gay, M'Kay?

Three years ago, Loudoun County, Virginia County Supervisor Eugene Delgaudio (R) attempted to draw Muslim support by attending a rally and pledging to "stand with you". But he then immediately followed up by asking whether those in the crowd "come in peace" and whether they pledge allegiance to the United States.

This displayed, to say the least, exceptionally poor judgment -- akin, I remarked, to "giving a speech at a GLAAD event and demanding to know how many audience members have molested children."

Perhaps I should have used a different example:
A widely distributed e-mail written by [Eugene] Delgaudio for the Public Advocate about TSA, claims the pat downs are part of a "Homosexual Agenda." And he criticizes TSA's non-discrimination hiring policy.

"It's the federal employee's version of the Gay Bill of Special Rights... That means the next TSA official that gives you an 'enhanced pat down' could be a practicing homosexual secretly getting pleasure from your submission," Delgaudio wrote.
When I read outlandish things like this, I can't help but recall that classic Onion article, "Repeal Of 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' Paves Way For Gay Sex Right On Battlefield, Opponents Fantasize".

... in related delusions, how about this doozy from a Minnesota minister: "Keith Ellison is advancing Sharia law through 'homosexual agenda'". Talk about a strange bedfellows (the bizarre thing -- well, more bizarre, anyway -- is that this particular minister has in the past explicitly applauded the execution of homosexuals in some Muslim countries).

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Die Another Day Roundup

Terrible Bond flick, but it did contain perhaps the best one-liner in the series ("How's that for a punchline?").

* * *

Rep. Steve King (R-IA) wants folks to know we have an "urban" President.

The DADT report is out, and it looks good for team anti-discrimination.

Best quote from a soldier in that report? "We have a gay guy [in the unit]. He’s big, he’s mean, and he kills lots of bad guys. No one cared that he was gay."

The NAACP is hosting a summit on the growing resegregation of our schools.

TNC on the "secession ball" neo-confederates are planning on hosting.

What makes food safety the one thing that actually managed to secure GOP cooperation this term?

US condemns Palestinian pseudo-science which denies Jewish link to the Western Wall.

Federal court judge issues a preliminary injunction blocking enforcement of an Oklahoma law which would forbid courts from considering international or shariah law.

From the WIkiLeak: Qatari emir says he "can't blame" Israel for mistrusting Arabs.

Speaking of the WikiLeaks, I haven't been following them that closely, but I read somewhere that the one party whose private communications contained no surprising revelations is Israel. They're communiques with America apparently relay much the same things as what they say in public. So much for shadowy Zionists.

Monday, November 29, 2010

The Galaxxy Warrior Packs It In

Days after losing a decision to journeyman Walter Estrada, former lightweight titlist Nate "the Galaxxy Warrior" Campbell (33-7-1, 25 KOs) has announced his retirement. Campbell, who shocked undefeated unified lightweight title holder Juan Diaz to win three belts in 2008, was never able to capitalize on his success. In his next scheduled fight, Joan Guzman came in grossly overweight and refused to carry forward with the fight, plunging Campbell into bankruptcy. Following that, Campbell lost his titles on the scales against Ali Funeka, but managed to gut out a razor-thin majority decision (with the two knockdowns he scored -- including one clutch 11th round knockdown with the fight up for grabs -- proving the difference) in his last top-level performance. He ended his career with a no contest against Tim Bradley in a fight Bradley appeared to be dominating, then a loss to Victor Ortiz and Estrada. The time was right for him to hang the gloves up.

Campbell was one of those guys who I'm really glad won a title. Yes, he shot himself in the foot with some ill-advised showboating against Robbie Peden. But, putting that aside, Nate Campbell was a professional who worked hard everyday, took pride in what he did, and scrambled to the top of the sport the hard way. He started late, never really had anyone in his corner (his promoter, Don King, pretty much actively sabotaged his career), was the B-side of nearly every major fight he was in, but kept plugging away until he finally managed to wrap a belt around his waist. He says he wants to stay in the game as a trainer or commentator, and I think that sounds just fine. So while I'll miss him in the ring, I look forward to seeing him around boxing for many years to come.

Thanks, Nate -- and congratulations on a fine career.

Where Kristol Goes, So Go the Jews

Benyamin Korn, Director of Jewish Americans for Sarah Palin (what a lonely fellow), has a column up trying to argue that educated Jewish Americans are turning toward the former half-term Alaska governor. His examples? Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Bill Kristol, Seth Lipsky, and John and Norman Podhoretz.

Color me "lol". The fact that Republican hacks "intellectuals" like Kristol and the Podhoretzs support Palin demonstrates nothing more than the shallowness of what constitutes intellectualism in the conservative movement. Lipsky, now at the New York Sun, finds it fascinating that Palin is a constitutional originalist -- I'll pay $40 to the first person who can show to me that the Governor has thought through that position with anything approaching a 1L's rigor (not to mention, originalism as an exegetical method is pretty foreign to Judaism). And then we have Joe Lieberman, whose following amongst intellectual Jews (outside Kristol-esque hacks) has withered to virtually nothing.

I mean, can any read this paragraph without breaking out laughing?
Lieberman, Kristol, Lipsky, and the Podhoretz’s are sophisticated, educated, thinking Jews who appreciate Palin's heartfelt support for Israel, her forceful and informed advocacy for energy independence, her strong stance on national security, and her fealty to traditional moral values (sometimes we forget these are Jewish values, too!). All are bellwethers of the increasing respect for Sarah Palin amongst us – the educated and affluent American Jews.

It's a giggle a minute, here.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

It Takes Two, Baby

This Jerusalem Post captures two very distinct elements on my outlook on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.

The first thing the article talks about the Fatah Revolutionary Council's latest meeting, in which it refused, among other things, to permit recognition of Israel as a Jewish state ("The council also renews its refusal for the establishment of any racist state based on religion in accordance with international law and human rights conventions.") or to consider lands swaps as part of comprehensive peace agreement with Israel ("[I]llegal settler gangs can't be put on an equal footing with the owners of the lands and rights."), or the idea of establishing a Palestinian state with temporary borders in preparation for final status talks. All this leaves me wondering precisely what Palestinians think is being negotiated over here? If negotiations are about compromises and give-and-take, is there anything the FRC is prepared to, well, "negotiate" over?

When it comes to negotiations, Palestinian officials seem to think only one side has an obligation to show up. It's not that there aren't things they have just claim to -- of course there are -- but there's scarcely any notion of reciprocity. "Jewish state"? No. Land swaps? No. Temporary borders? No. Recognition of basic historical facts like the Jewish connection to the Western Wall? No. It's paralleled by the seeming Palestinian approach to armed conflict, where, there too, only one side is apparently allowed to show up.

It's ridiculous. The refusal to countenance land swaps in principle is an arbitrary red-line on a subject which, until now, everyone took for granted would play a role in a final status agreement. And paired with the refusal to consider temporary borders, it puts the kibosh on one of the more promising proposals (by Kadima MK Shaul Mofaz) which would create a provisional Palestinian state on roughly 60% of the West Bank (comprising 99.2% of the West Bank's Palestinian population, plus additional land to create territorial contiguity), as a first step to final borders. Undoubtedly, the ceding of certain settlement blocs to Israel would be matched by land swaps back to the Palestinians. It's a decent plan, and is the outline (subject to negotiation) of a fair one, and now it appears to be a dead one. Go figure.

Meanwhile, shoehorned into the bottom of the article is a proposal by Yair Lapid (son of Shinui founder Tommy Lapid) that we detach the creation of a Palestinian state from the question of peace between Israel and Palestine. It's an idea that's appealed to me for awhile now. Often, the question of Palestinian statehood is debated as a question of dreams and nightmares: the dream that it will lead to a rapid solution to the entire conflict (in which case it should happen immediately), the nightmare that it will lead to a catastrophic and irreversible deterioration in Israel's security situation (in which case it shouldn't).

But of course, those aren't the only alternatives. Also possible -- and I think most likely -- is that the creation of a Palestinian state would neither solve the conflict, nor exacerbate it. It may bring peace moderately closer, or it may make Israel moderately more precarious, or it may have a negligible effect. In that case, it seems like the balance of rights would counsel immediate creation of a Palestinian state, as the benefit to the Palestinians (independence) would outweigh the prospective harms (at worst, moderate deterioration in Israel's security). As Lapid writes, the creation of an independent Palestine may not bring peace, but it certainly will make the conflict easier to manage than in the status quo:
[T]he establishment of a Palestinian state would “take the world off our backs, curb the process of turning us into a pariah state, enable us to maintain our security with fewer restraints, lift the burden of controlling three million people, and enable us to manage the discussion on our final borders and the future of the settlements.”

Whatever else one might say about Israel's security posture towards, say, Lebanon or Syria, it's clear that it has been easier to manage than the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. The reason is simple -- interstate conflict is well-studied, well-modeled, is easy to predict, and possesses well-established rules and norms of conduct governing the parties. Intra-state occupations and ethnic conflict possesses none of these qualities. Changing the status of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict to something like the Israeli/Syrian conflict would be decidedly less than ideal, but it would also be a marked improvement over the status quo.

Of course, as the first part of this post indicates, simply establishing a Palestinian state is not so simple, as the Palestinian approach to negotiation appears to be stuck in near-maximalism. But what can you do?

So Easy, a Bacterium Could Do It

Next time you fail to solve a Sudoku puzzle, prepare to be more humiliated than usual.

Boxing Roundup: 11/27/10

I'll give thanks for last night's fights (well, all but one of them). So let's recap some of the action, and give me thoughts on where everyone goes next.

Carl Froch (27-1, 20 KOs) UD12 Arthur Abraham (31-2, 25 KOs)

This was the stinker of the night, as Froch meticulously outboxed Abraham all evening for a landslide decision. Abraham couldn't get off all night, thanks to Froch's lateral movement and persistent jab. It was the recipe that Andre Dirrell used to hand Abraham his first loss, but folks weren't sure if Froch was up to Dirrell's level of slickness. And honestly, he's not -- but he was close enough to make it an easy night.

Froch has had a lot of doubters, myself included, but it is getting close to the point where he is forcing folks to take him seriously. Yes, "King Arthur" is probably a bit overrated, particularly out of his natural 160 lbs weight class (Froch's reach advantage, in particular, was absolutely lethal tonight). And yes, we really don't know how much Jermain Taylor had left when Froch stormed back for a dramatic 12th round KO (we know he had nothing left when Abraham starched him). But these wins, coupled with an ever-more impressive one over Jean Pascal and a tight decision loss to Mikkel Kessler, demonstrate that he's the real deal. He's deceptively talented along every dimension -- faster handspeed than you think, better footwork than you think, more elusive than you think, more powerful than you think, and exactly as tough as you think -- and that's a solid combination. I can't wait to see him in against Glen Johnson in the semis, which I think has the potential to be a firecracker of a fight.

As for Abraham, he's in trouble. He's been beaten twice now by the same gameplan,and he hasn't historically been good at adjusting. And he faces tournament favorite Andre Ward next, who is nothing if not good at adjusting. I see Ward boxing to an easy decision. Abraham's power makes him dangerous with anyone who is willing to mix it up with him, but that makes him little different than a Germanic Edison Miranda.

Andre Ward (23-0, 13 KOs) UD12 Sakio Bika (28-5-2, 19 KOs)

Exceptionally wide scorecards aside (the judge who scored it a Ward shutout might as well not have attended the fight, and I'd take it as a kindness to the sport if he didn't attend any others in official capacity), this was a grueling fight in which Ward justifiably took a tight decision. But Bika gave him all kinds of hell early in what was easily the hardest fight of Ward's career, and I include Mikkel Kessler in that mix. Ward likes to bully folks on the inside, but Bika is all about that style, and was ripping Ward to the body early on. But Ward, as ever, adjusted mid-fight and began neutralizing Bika's looping hooks and landing the precision shots on the inside.

More importantly, unlike many bullies, Ward showed that he doesn't crumble against the same tactics. Both men threw almost as many headbutts and elbows as they did punches. But whereas Bika's stemmed more from his style as bang-em-up brawler, Ward's fouls were, dare I say it, more tactical -- reminding me a lot of Bernard Hopkins. In the final round, for instance, Bika was going for the knockout and stunned Ward with a hook. So Ward intelligently held on, then, as the ref was separating the two, hit Bika on the break. Bika complains, the ref admonishes both fighters to keep it clean, and all of the sudden Ward gained an extra 30 seconds to recover.

Ward is really amongst the very elite of the sport under any metric, but particularly in the category of ring technicians. Along with B-Hop and Mayweather, he's one of those fighters that seems to know all the tricks, and has both the physical tools and the presence of mind to change courses when the fight isn't going his way. That's a very valuable skill, and one of the reasons Ward, I think, is a potential #1 P4P guy in the future.

As for Bika, I think he did show that he belongs in the conversation of top Super Middleweights, and demonstrated that he'll be a hellish outing for any fighter in that class. He's built like a Men's Health centerfold, exceptionally strong, and brings incredible pressure to the table, has a mean streak the size of the Dan Ryan Expressway, and carries serious power in those looping hooks. Unfortunately, most of the good match-ups in the division are tied up in the Super 6. Lucien Bute already beat him and would probably do so again (though Bika has improved markedly from their first match-up -- but then, so has Bute). Bika would shred Allan Green, I think. I think he'd tear through Robert Stieglitz, who I'm equally sure wants no part of Bika. Librado Andrade is a dream fight for fans of oldest-of-old school street fights. Bika/Kessler would be interesting, as Bika brings exactly the sort of raw pressure and intensity that sometimes causes Kessler to fade. Whatever it is, I'm interested.

Andre Berto (27-0, 21 KOs) KO1 Freddie Hernandez (29-2, 20 KOs)

This was a mismatch on paper, as Hernandez jumped straight from B/B+ fighters to an A/A+ guy in Berto. And it turned out to be a mismatch in practice, as Berto put him down in the first with a pretty sweet right hand. Hernandez got up, but was unsteady, and the ref waved it off. For Berto, this was an audition for Manny Pacquiao, and along that axis it was a pretty rousing success. And given that I'd much rather see Pacquaio against Berto than against most of the other names being thrown out (Mosley, Cotto, Marquez at 147), that's a good thing. But in terms of finding out more about Berto, it does nothing. He's really only been in against one truly elite foe, Luis Collazo, and that was a white knuckle affair which Berto barely squeaked through. As for Hernandez, this was likely his one shot at glory, and he didn't exactly cover himself in it.

Jason Litzau (28-2, 21 KOs) SD10 Celestino Caballero (34-3, 23 KOs)

Jason Litzau, previously seen on the wrong end of one of my favorite knockouts, was brought in as a mere opponent to showcase Caballero and see if the latter could force the issue with a desperately desired fight with either Yuriorkis Gamboa or Juan Manuel Lopez. But Litzau came to fight, and Caballero, who felt like he's been overlooked in the 122 and 126 lbs weight classes, overlooked Litzau. Caballero, who came up in weight, didn't have his usual towering height advantage (he's 5'11", Litzau is 5'10"), and seemed at times stunned that his opponent was actually firing back. Caballero did start to wake up a bit late in the fight, but it was too little, too late.

Litzau, whom many (including myself) had written off as a one-dimension brawler with a poor chin, has easily the best win of his career and, paired with a technical decision over Rocky Juarez in his last fight, may be seeing a bit of a career resurgence after being obliterated by Roberto Guerrero six fights ago. It was a great fight, a great performance by Litzau, and probably the upset of the year. And Caballero may have just dealt his own career a mortal blow. His physique alone makes him a nightmare for anyone in the lower weight classes, but he brings no money and a ton of danger, and after losing unimpressively in his big showcase fight, nobody has any incentive to get in the ring with him. It'll be a long road back for the 34-year old.

Juan Manuel Marquez (52-5-1, 38 KOs) TKO9 Michael Katsidis (27-3, 22 KOs)

I missed the first half of this fight to finish up Ward/Bika, and what I apparently missed was the fight everyone expected it to be -- a knockdown, drag out brawl which pitted Katsidis's insatiable aggression against Marquez's legendary counter-punching. After Marquez's lopsided loss to Floyd Mayweather at 147, folks were left wondering how much of it was the weight, and how much was Marquez finally aging. His victory over a severely faded Juan Diaz didn't answer much, but tonight filled in any gaps that might have been left. Marquez stood in and traded with the younger, hard-hitting Katsidis, and it paid off. But Katsidis was certainly in this fight every step of the way, and put Marquez on the canvas in round 3 -- a wild round which saw Katsidis going for the kill and Marquez displaying incredible fortitude to survive and turn the tables.

Marquez wants, more than anything else, a third fight with Manny Pacquiao. In a just world, he's earned at 135 or 140. But the world isn't just, and at 147 it's simply a mismatch. Marquez, being the warrior that he is, will undoubtedly take the fight at 147 (as someone remarked, Marquez would agree to fight Pacquiao with no weight limit, no gloves, and no ropes if that's what it took), but I can't see it ending well for him. What I can see if Marquez as a future hall-of-famer, going down as one of the greatest Mexican fighters of our generation, and one of the greatest counter-punchers of any generation.

As for Katsidis, he showed why he is one of the premier action fighters of our time -- this decade's answer to Arturo Gatti. There is not a single fight Katsidis could possibly be in that doesn't have the potential for fight of the year honors. He is a great sportsman and a great star, and I look forward to seeing him again in the ring, soon.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Happy Thanksgiving

I suppose I'm thankful for the subject of the last post, but I'm also thankful for many other things -- great family, great friends, great opportunities, and a great platform to express myself every day. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving, everyone!

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

DeLay Found Guilty

Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) has been found guilty of all counts by a Texas jury. He faces five years to life in prison for money laundering charge, plus two to 20 years for conspiring to illegally funnel corporate money to various Texas Republican candidates. He could also get probation.

This case was very messy, with allegations that even some of the judges involved were in the pocket of the DeLay machine. But the indictment was a beautiful day in my life. And the conviction is no less sweet.

DeLay maintains his innocence and is expected to appeal.

The Missing Voice

The Washington Post has added Jennifer Rubin to their stable of writers. I can't express how thrilled I am that the author of one of the more infamous anti-Semitic hit pieces in the past couple of years is joining America's preeminent political paper.

Meanwhile, a Goldblog reader points out the emergent trend of conservative pro-Israelism being expressed in seemingly anti-Israel ways. Cites include Rep. Ros-Lehtinen's break-up of Israeli/Cuban rapprochement, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) trying to make it easier for Congress to vote against aid for Israel by decoupling it from the general foreign aid bill, and the hilariously-named Emergency Committee for Israel backing ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who voted against aid for Israel on several occasions, in his successful Senate bid against Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA).

... and adding to the list, Republican opposition to the new START treaty. Anybody who is worried about Iran's nuclear ambitions has to be worried about the proliferation of loose nuclear material floating around. Israel, of course, has more to fear than most from nuclear proliferation extending to Iran, which is why START is so clearly critical to its long term security needs.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Back Home

Thanksgiving at my place! Everyone's invited (not really).

Meanwhile, a club shut down a pre-paid party for Harvard and Yale alums because too many Black people were on the guest list.

Monday, November 22, 2010

The Friend of My Enemy ...

Potential rapprochement between Israel and Cuba, sparked by Fidel Castro's surprisingly direct condemnation of anti-Semitism in relation to anti-Israel politics, now looks to be off, thanks to the timely intervention of Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), incoming chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Ros-Lehtinen has a reputation for being pro-Israel, but an even stronger one for being anti-Castro, and was exceptionally displeased at seeing the wide rift between Israel and Cuba be even partially bridged. Prime Minister Netanyahu has apparently written a letter of apology to Rep. Ros-Lehtinen.

I don't want to overstate things -- it was hardly the case that Israel and Cuba were on the verge of becoming besties until Ros-Lehtinen stepped in. And likewise, I don't consider what Ros-Lehtinen did to be inappropriate -- she has policy preferences which she is entitled to exercise, and furthering the isolation of Cuba matters more to her than countering the isolation of Israel. That's useful knowledge for me to have, but we're allowed to have differences of opinion.

I do think that Jeffrey Goldberg's wry comment about the relative power of "lobbies" is well-taken. But more fundamentally, this whole notion about who "controls" whose foreign policy -- that it is some unique abomination if the US adopts anything but a reckless, devil-may-care attitude towards how our foreign policy decisions impact other countries -- is substantively absurd. Countries (particularly, we'd hope, friendly countries) are constantly in dialogue with each other and adopt their policies to match the desires of their friends. Sometimes that means Israel varies its policies to suit allies in the US, and sometimes vice versa. Of course, here I think the policy Israel is being forced to pursue to appease Rep. Ros-Lehtinen is substantively bad for both them and us, but the process itself is decidedly normal.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Presto! Property

Stewart Baker on intellectual property:
Conservatives — and especially libertarians — seem like a cheap date on this issue. You’d think libertarians would have been in the forefront of objecting to governmental intrusions into our lives at the behest of a special interest — let alone the creation of a new class of quasicriminals, defined as more or less everyone who entered high school after 1996, who can be investigated and prosecuted whenever the government or some member of industry decides that they are too troublesome.

But no. For a lot of libertarians, judging by the comments to David’s post, all the RIAA has to do is call its new government-created entitlement a form of property, and, presto bingo, it’s sacrosanct.

Come to think of it, maybe I can persuade readers here that TSA’s new enhanced security measures are just fine — as long as we enforce the rules by giving all the passengers on the plane a “property” right not to travel with people who refuse body imaging and enhanced patdowns. Instead of relying on oppressive government regulation, we’d just let the passengers collect millions in “statutory damages” from noncompliant travelers.

He's riffing off of Larry Lessig's Free Culture here. The whole post is worth a read.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Voters are Morons, Part 566

I'd like to use this as a an opportunity to mock California voters in particular, but Kevin Drum is undoubtedly right that it probably applies nationwide:
Californians object to increasing taxes in order to pare the state's massive budget deficit, and instead favor closing the breach through spending cuts. But they oppose cuts—and even prefer more spending—on programs that make up 85% of the state's general fund obligations, a new Los Angeles Times/USC Poll has found.

That paradox rests on Californians' firm belief that the state's deficit—estimated last week at nearly $25 billion over the next 18 months—can be squared through trimming waste and inefficiencies rather than cutting the programs they hold dear. Despite tens of billions that have been cut from the state budget in recent years, just a quarter of California voters believed that state services would have to be curtailed to close the deficit.

I remember reading a study which first asked voters if they believed foreign aid should be cut -- the answer being a resounding "yes". The next question was how much the respondents believed we spent on foreign aid -- an amount they overstated dramatically. Finally, when asked how much we should spend on foreign aid, they gave a figure that was something like triple what we spend currently.

The Price of Publication

I am pleased to announce the official publication of my Comment: David Schraub, The Price of Victory: Political Triumphs and Judicial Protection in the Gay Rights Movement, 77 U. Chi. L. Rev. 1437 (2010). As Professor Solum would say, download it while it's hot!

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

My Favorite Knockouts: Corrales TKO10 Castillo & Williams TKO6 Potter

One of the reasons I love boxing is that it's a sport where the competitors show incredible grit and determination. Obviously, many sports have their share of astonishing comebacks and contestants with incontestable heart. But there is very little that compares to the sheer willpower and desire it takes to comeback from being so hurt that you literally can't stand-up, throwing back, and winning a fight.

The first matchup between Diego Corrales and Jose Luis Castillo is considered an all-time classic, and the 10th round, shown here, is arguably one of the greatest rounds of all time. Corrales had always been a never-say-die sort of fighter -- in fact, he lost his undefeated record to Floyd Mayweather, who knocked him down 5 times across the course of the fight. When his corner finally stopped it after knockdown #5, Corrales, who was hopelessly behind and being battered pillar to post, was visibly furious.



This second one is a little macabre -- just warning. But though it shows a different sort of "comeback", I think it falls into the same category -- a demonstration of an indomitable will to win which I don't think has parallel in any other sport.

Switch 'em Off

A poll surveying American attitudes towards the coming GOP takeover of the House makes it very clear that the Republicans do not carry with them a "mandate". In fact, they asked that very question, and only 17% of Americans thought the elections constituted a mandate from the American people.

Rather, Americans voted in Republicans because they were frustrated with Democrats, and wanted a change. Not that they expect much -- 64% think Republicans will do as well or worse.

So it's basically a classic mid-term in a poor economy. Change for change's sake. It's not an illegitimate opinion by any means. But it's not a mandate.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

My Favorite Knockouts: Hernandez KO8 Litzau

It is surprisingly rare for two truly evenly-matched competitors to step into the ring with each other. Generally, it happens in only two situations: Either two prospects, to try and establish which one is "for real", or at the very pinnacle of the sport, where the best (sometimes) fights the best.

A significant amount of modern boxing coverage, though, falls under the category of the "showcase fight". The guy being groomed to be a star is trotted out against an opponent who looks credible on paper, but is pretty much expected to lose and make the prospect look good, feeding anticipation for the prospect/contender's next fight.

But the nice thing about boxing is that the opponent can always be a spoiler. Here, Jason Litzau was the prospect, and Jose Hernandez was meant to be the main course in his coming out party. And for most of the fight, it looked like it. Hernandez did show he could hurt the chinny Litzau with a first round knockdown, but Litzau controlled the rest of the fight, with Hernandez stalking but unable to land. Until Round 8 (go to 1:40 if you want to skip the first round knockdown).



I saw this fight, and the energy was electric. A genuine, underdog, come-from-behind, one shot knockout that was itself a beauty to behold. Hernandez parlayed this into a decently high-profile fight against Rocky Juarez (which he lost), and has since faded into obscurity, fighting and losing one more fight to a journeyman in 2009. Litzau has labored on the fringes for awhile now, getting annihilated by Robert Guerrero in his one title shot. Litzau himself is playing "opponent" for Celestino Caballero's jump up to Junior Lightweight at the end of the month.

Is It Still Moot Roundup?

The first round of the Moot Court is over, and I think it went well. Same moderate concerns about speaking too fast (though none about gesticulation), but this time, they were pretty explicitly couched in terms like "it distracted me from your brilliant substance" -- so, good sign. "The only reason I kept listening [after being exhausted by the speed] was because of how compelling you are" is kind of an odd comment to get, but I'll take it.

* * *

Interesting interview between Adi Schwartz and John Ging of the UNRWA. One legitimate point Ging makes is that the UNRWA doesn't set its mandate -- the UNGA does. And hence, it is the UNGA that is preventing the UNRWA from treating its refugees like all others, and thus perpetuating the conflict by refusing to countenance resettling the refugees. The UNRWA is simply the hand that implements a malignant policy set elsewhere.

Spanish liberals and Western Sahara.

The Ottawa Protocol on Combating Anti-Semitism.

Glenn Beck and Iran are two peas in a pod when it comes to George Soros.

The lame-duck session of Congress included the House Ethics Committee finding that veteran-Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) committed ethical violations. I applaud the Committee for taking these matters seriously, and hope that the incoming Republican majority shows as much diligence in policing the ethical foibles of its own members.

Sen. John McCain has been an embarrassment on DADT, so it's quite just that he be embarrassed over it.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who likely won her write-in bid for re-election to the Senate, has opened fire on Sarah Palin, and is indicating that she will not play any role in tea party-backed efforts to sink the Obama administration.

Three more Oxford academics have resigned from the UCU, alleging it to be infected by institutional anti-Semitism. The final nail in the coffin, it seems, was the UCU's rejection of an Oxford branch-backed motion to disassociate the UCU from the views of noted hate speaker Bongani Masuku, whom the union had invited as part of its boycott Israel agenda.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Reduce the Deficit!

The New York Times has a neat little application that lets you decide how to balance the budget. Basically, it offers an array of programs to cut or taxes to raise, and lets you mix and match them until you balance the budget in 2015 (current projected shortfall: $418 billion) and 2030 (current projected shortfall: $1,345 billion).

One thing becomes very obvious, very quick, and that's that to make any dent in the deficit, you'll have to either raise taxes, or cut defense or entitlement spending. Eliminating earmarks, for example, only nets a savings of $14 billion dollars -- barely 1% of the 2030 shortfall. Reducing troops in Iraq to 30,000 by 2013, by contrast, nets a whopping $169 billion.

I was able to balance the 2015 budget with roughly a 50/50 balance of spending cuts and tax increases. To handle the much larger 2030 deficit, though, I had to resort to more tax hikes, changing the proportion to more like 70/30. Most of the spending reductions came from the defense department, mostly by shrinking the size of the armed forces (particularly the air force, navy, and nuclear arsenals) -- that got me almost $300 billion on its own. Other cuts included slashing farm subsidies and reducing social security benefits for high earners.

On the tax side of things, I returned investment and estate taxes to their Clinton-administration levels, raised the payroll tax cap, instituted a "millionaire's tax" (basically, adding another tax bracket that starts at $1,000,000), eliminated tax loopholes, and established a carbon tax and a tax on risky banks. Altogether, this would reduce our 2030 deficit to a mere $16 billion, while causing us to actually run a 2015 surplus of $269 billion dollars.

But that's just my plan. Go ahead, fiddle with it and try your own!

Sunday, November 14, 2010

My Favorite Knockouts: Wilson KO11 Nwodo

I feel like I've been remiss in providing boxing blogging. I did watch Pacquiao/Margarito last night, but I don't feel like I have anything to add -- Pacquiao simply shredded the bigger man in a masterpiece performance.

So instead of searching for a new angle, I figured I might debut a periodic feature -- YouTube clips of some of my favorite knockouts.

The first on the list was the bout that ended up winning ESPN's "knockout of the decade" contest, Darnell "Ding-a-Ling Man" Wilson KO11 Emmanuel Nwodo. Rarely will see as much pure power generated in a single shot as found right here:



Overshadowed by the knockout is the fact that this fight was a scintillating, back-and-forth brawl for the entire bout. Both men alternatively had seized momentum, and I believe at the time of the stoppage Nwodo was still ahead on the cards. But in any fight, it takes one punch to turn it around, and when that punch is delivered by someone with the concussive power of Darnell Wilson -- watch out.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Why Do Politics Stop at the Water's Edge?

The latest scandal burbling out of Washington involves a meeting between House Minority Whip (soon to be Majority Leader) Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) and Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu wherein Rep. Cantor promised to serve as a "check" on the Obama Administration's policies regarding Israel and the Middle East.

The main objection to this is that "politics stop at the water's edge", and that when it comes to foreign policy, America speaks with one voice emanating from the executive branch. Certainly, there is plenty of precedent for this belief, one aggressively trumpeted by Republicans during the Bush administration. And I suppose there is something to it -- constitutionally, control over foreign policy is delegated largely to the executive branch, and there is something deeply unseemly about an American politician tells a foreign leader that he will take his side in a clash between that county's desires and America's.

That being said, there seems to be a fiction being enacted here, which is that there are no substantive political disputes about what American interests are or what American foreign policy should be. There are no inherent American interests, only competing conceptions of what America should be interested in. And nobody is really surprised that Rep. Cantor and President Obama disagree on the question. So why shouldn't Rep. Cantor use what leverage is constitutionally delegated to the House of Representatives to try and enact his favor cluster of foreign policy priorities?

Now therein lies the rub for me: I find Rep. Cantor's intervention substantively distasteful, as I think his policy prescriptions are worse for America, worse for Palestinians, and ultimately worse for Israelis. So for that reason, I oppose what he did -- the same as I would oppose a Cantor meeting with the Chamber of Commerce where he pledged to serve as a "check" on the Obama Administration's efforts to regulate the financial industry. But the belief that domestic politics represent something fundamentally different from foreign policy -- the former a subject of legitimate democratic constestation, the latter beyond the bounds of ideological debate -- strikes me as near-entirely fictional.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Breaking: Americans Still Hate Palin

Even with her tea-party-affiliated wing of the GOP in ascendancy, Sarah Palin continues to decline, with over half of Americans (52%, to be precise) viewing her unfavorably. Just 40% have a favorable view of the former half-term Alaska Governor.

Better yet, for Democrats at least, is that her support is growing more polarized -- she continues to register gains amongst Republican voters, but these are counterbalanced by her growing toxicity with independents. All of which spells a Palin nomination for President in 2012 -- followed by a crushing defeat by Barack Obama.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Anti-Soros Anti-Semitism

Jewish leaders from all camps are outraged at the deployment of nakedly anti-Semitic tropes by Glenn Beck in his ongoing crusade against liberal investor George Soros. Soros, a Holocaust survivor, was accused by Beck of being a Nazi collaborator while hiding with a non-Jewish family in his teenage years. This is on top of a wave of rhetoric which, in the words of Michelle Goldberg:
described Soros as the most powerful man on earth, the creator of a ‘shadow government’ that manipulates regimes and currencies for its own enrichment. Obama is his ‘puppet,’ Beck says. Soros has even ‘infiltrated the churches.’ He foments social unrest and economic distress so he can bring down governments, all for his own financial gain.

Beck even borrowed quotes from the rabidly anti-Semitic former Malaysian premier Mahathir Mohamad.

Soros is a public figure, and thus is a fair target for public attack. But I have expressed in the past and reiterate my observation that many of these attacks have taken on more than a hint of anti-Semitic flavor -- and Glenn Beck has been leading the charge.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Moot Court Round 1.1

My first moot court round (well, half of it -- we each go once as petitioner and respondent in round one) is now complete, and I think it went rather well. The judges told me I spoke a little fast, which I take to be a big victory (normally I speak blindingly fast). They also noted that I overgesticulate, which is definitely true. But they had naught but happy words for my substance and seemed generally pretty satisfied, so, yay.

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Senate Changed Paul

The earmark debate is dumb. Earmarks account for an absurdly small percentage of federal spending, so the hubbub over it is almost invariably a way to sound like one cares about the budget without actually having to cut anything worthwhile.

Nonetheless, it has been a bit of a tea party hobbyhorse, and opposition to earmarks was a key element of Sen.-elect Rand Paul's (R-KY) campaign. So much for that:
In a bigger shift from his campaign pledge to end earmarks, he tells me that they are a bad “symbol” of easy spending but that he will fight for Kentucky’s share of earmarks and federal pork, as long as it’s doled out transparently at the committee level and not parachuted in in the dead of night. “I will advocate for Kentucky’s interests,” he says.

Good lord, man, you've been elected for less than a week! At least go through the motions!

I'm reminded of the last panel of this comic:
THOG: Thog wonders how Thog will cope with life outside jailhouse walls. Prison changed Thog.

ELAN: We were only in there for 40 minutes.

THOG: Prison changed Thog quickly.

Monday, November 08, 2010

It's No Better in the Private Sector, Kid

I empathize with Radley Balko's travails to get his refund back from the IRS. But that's because I'm locked in more or less the same battle with Comcast, which has been hanging onto my security deposit and refund for nearly three months now. Same utter incompetence by everyone I've every interacted with. Same shunting from bureaucracy to bureaucracy. Same inability to explain what went wrong, how it went wrong, or how they're planning to fix it. I don't think even the IRS' opening gambit was to allege that Balko owed them additional money, which is how Comcast tried to play me.

GOP Rep. Bachus Blames Palin for Continued Dem Control of Senate

Someone's going to get tea partied come 2012:
Alabama Rep. Spencer Bachus (R) told members of the South Shelby Chamber of Commerce that former Alaska governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin was probably the reason for the GOP's failure to take control in the U.S. Senate in last week's election.

"The Senate would be Republican today except for states (in which Palin endorsed candidates) like Christine O'Donnell in Delaware," Bachus said. "Sarah Palin cost us control of the Senate."

There's actually a surprisingly decent case for this: Nominating sane candidates flips Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado into the GOP column. That makes things 50-50, and frees up Republican resources to bombard Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), who barely escaped 2010 intact.

Saturday, November 06, 2010

The Texas Eagle Forum Poses Some Final Solutions to America's Muslim Problem

The Texas Eagle Forum has a plan for countering the existence of Muslims in America:
In the U.S., there are Muslim training camps across the country actively planning attacks on American soil. Young Americans are being converted to Islam in our jails, our military, public schools and universities, and in churches that preach Liberation Theology. Muslims have gained two seats in the U.S, Congress and have won seats in state and local races. Public school textbooks are becoming pro-Islam and anti-Christian. Muslims are buying Fortune 500 companies and high tech companies. There is a Dow Jones Islamic Index. Islamic banks, insurance companies and mortgage companies are springing up across the country. Our open borders welcome Muslims.

The challenge to America is to stop the spread of Islam in the U.S. before it is too late.

SOLUTIONS:

1. Congress MUST outlaw Shariah and international law
2. Eliminate Muslim government employees
3. Outlaw Muslim terrorist organizations, such as The Muslim Brotherhood, CAIR, etc.
4. Muslims should be ineligible to run for political office
5. All Muslim military personnel should be removed from the U.S. armed forces
6. Monitor mosques
7. Shut down terrorist training camps in the U.S.

Query the coherence of claiming folks are converted to Islam inside churches which preach "Liberation Theology". One would think they'd simply become adherents of the branches of Christianity that believe in liberation theology.

Also, pro tip -- when one simple wants to release an employee from their job, we usually term that "firing". "Eliminate" is a verb that sort of connotes killing.

Friday, November 05, 2010

Not Worth a Dog's Dinner

An Oakland cop who shot an unarmed and restrained Black man on a subway platform received two years in prison after being convicted of involuntary manslaughter. It was the shortest possible sentence absent probation (the harshest potential sentence was 14 years). The involuntary manslaughter rap itself was itself the most lenient charge Grant Mehserle could have been convicted of -- a fact which also led to considerable unrest when the verdict came down.

As Oscar Grant's family pointed out, this is less time than Michael Vick was sentenced to for his dog-fighting ring -- thus adding another name to the list of humans we value dogs more than. What is the victim's family supposed to think about that? Such is the nation we live in -- the same one, incidentally, which sentences men who abuse and kill their wives more leniently than women who kill their abusers. Nowhere more than in the criminal realm to we express more clearly the notion of whose bodies matter more, and whose bodies matter less; which criminals we are inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to, and which ones we take it upon ourselves to lock away for extra time.

Fuzzy Math

The Yahoo headline is Republicans take aim at cost of Obama’s trip to India.

But as the article later points out, the Republican claims that the trip will cost $200 million/day -- advanced by luminaries like Mike Huckabee and terminally unhinged Michele Bachmann -- are flatly false. There's no basis in reality for them. Claims that Obama will be accompanied by 10% of the US Navy are also, unsurprisingly, wildly false.

Why isn't the headline "Top Republicans Lie About Cost of Obama's India Trip"? This is an open and shut case.

Gray's Anatomy

D.C. mayor-elect Vincent Gray is beginning his transition. I think outgoing mayor Adrian Fenty did excellent work for the city, but what can you do -- its residents didn't like his style (and there were definitely stylistic missteps along the way that could have been averted). It never seemed clear to me what, if any, substantive differences Gray had from Fenty, so the best we can hope for is that Gray will largely continue down the same path -- but in a more friendly, deliberate fashion.

Also, as a citizen of the United States, I am personally humiliated by this sentence:
Gray said he plans to meet with GOP congressional leaders soon to urge them to allow the city to manage itself.

It is flatly embarrassing in this day and age that the mayor of our nation's capital has to walk up to Capitol Hill and beg Congress for the right to self-rule.

Thursday, November 04, 2010

The Roots of Obama's Lack of Rage

A lot of folks are angry that Obama hasn't been more angry -- that he hasn't "used the bully pulpit" to channel hellfire populist rage. Well, there's a good reason for that:
President Obama is a black man--and, as such, has unique cause to be wary of the adjective "angry."
[...]
Even when Obama has been at his cucumber-coolest--and has earned abuse from the left and center for it--figures on the right have aggressively tried to hang the "angry black man" label on him. A June editorial in The Washington Times (entitled, bluntly enough, "Angry Man Obama") cited his "tough guy" persona and "bullying undercurrent" and tied him to Spike Lee. A year ago, Rush Limbaugh described the school-bus beating of a white student by black students as typical of "Obama's America"; in the run-up to the midterms, Glenn Beck accused the president of "inciting people." The idea that Obama is driven by fury is prevalent enough on the right that Dinesh D'Souza could take it as a given in the title of his Amazon bestseller The Roots of Obama's Rage. Idiotic though it may be, this is not a narrative the president wants to fuel.

As Ta-Nehisi Coates astutely summarizes: "Frankly, I would not bet on the consistent returns of any black man who regularly employed anger in a room full of white people."

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

The Burning Ruins

Leave it to the Onion to make me smile: Last Remaining Politician must Rebuild Entire Government.
WASHINGTON--In the wake of what is being called the deadliest midterm election in the nation's history, Washington's sole surviving politician, Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon's 4th Congressional District, emerged from the rubble of the Capitol building Wednesday to announce his intention to rebuild the fallen U.S. government.

The events of Tuesday night—which included live televised images of Sen. Harry Reid taking a gavel to the head of Sen. Mitch McConnell while Rep. Barney Frank repeatedly smashed the face of Undersecretary for Food Safety Elisabeth Hagen against a marble column—left most Americans believing their entire government had perished in the post-election bloodbath. But the miraculous survival of DeFazio points to a possible way forward.

Was Robert Mugabe Not Available?

Guess who is sitting on the Board of Elections that will help certify the razor-thin VA-11 (incumbent Democrat Rep. Gerry Connolly is up by a couple hundred votes)? None other than voter suppression artist Hans von Spakovsky. Oh, joy.

As the Worm Turns

One of the upshots of last night's election is that there will be a grand total of zero Black senators in our glorious, color-blind nation (I guess part of being color-blind is I have to not notice that). In fact, we haven't elected a Black person to the Senate since, well, Barack Obama in 2004. And he's otherwise indisposed at the moment.

But the news isn't all bad in terms of Black political achievement. Republicans will be sending their largest contingent of Black Representatives to the House since Reconstruction ... 2! One of whom, Allen West (R-FL), is a war criminal (he resigned from the armed forces after being convicted in a military court of assault and misconduct for shooting a pistol off next to a bound detainee)!

Jamelle Bouie asks whether either West or Tim Scott (R-SC) will gain significant African-American support, before remembering that "black people aren't pure identity voters and don't support politicians with policies they oppose."

In all seriousness, it is a good thing that Republicans are running more Black candidates. It seems like the GOP realizes that, with a Black President, it can't be seen as an all-White party anymore. And while its outreach (such as it is) to the Black community hasn't been particularly successful (as Bouie points out, the key factor influencing Black votes -- like all of us -- is whether they largely support or oppose the policies of the party or candidate in question), it is undoubtedly a good thing that opportunities are opening up for Black Republicans within the Party.

The Rest of the Good News

I gave my general inspirational, rally the troops post immediately below this one. But, while recognizing that yesterday was indeed an excellent night for the Republicans (and it was), let's focus on some of the good news.

* Democrats have likely flipped five governor's mansions: California, Hawaii, Vermont, Connecticut, and Minnesota. Putting Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island doesn't bother me none either. And we defended on some tough turf as well -- nobody expected Pat Quinn to be going anywhere but home yesterday, but he pulled through. Maryland wasn't close at the end, but for awhile Robert Ehrlich looked like he was going to make a run of it. And, for those of you who care about "close, but no cigar", look at Florida -- where Alex Sink lost by a mere point, and South Carolina(!), where Vincent Shaheen fell only four points short.

* While the vast majority of House seats that changed hands went blue-to-red, there were three that bucked the trend. Say hello to our newly Democratic districts: the DE-AL, LA-02, and HI-01.

* Democrats genuinely did beat expectations in the Senate. Michael Bennet and Harry Reid weren't supposed to be coming back. But they did, and Reid, especially, basically wrote a textbook on how run a badass campaign when all the fundamentals (including the "does anyone in your state actually like you" fundamental) are against you.

* The craziest of Republican crazies aren't headed to Washington (or at least, not the Senate). Christine O'Donnell was soundly thrashed by Chris Coons. Harry Reid turned back Sharron Angle. Joe Miller looks like he'll fall to Lisa Murkowski in Alaska (and, though she'll caucus with the GOP, I imagine she may fill a positively Lieberman-esque role for the next six years). Ken Buck couldn't overtake Michael Bennet. John Raese went down in West Virginia. And it's no exaggeration to say that in three of those states -- Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado -- the candidate cost them the race. That's three Senate seats in Democratic hands, because Republicans overreached in their primaries.

* Even in the House, there are some bright spots (particularly looking ahead to 2012). More than a few Democratic candidates who were written-off earlier in the evening came back to win their races (Sanford Bishop and Gerry Connelly), and others who hung tough to win re-election in agonizingly close races (Joe Donnelly and Jerry McNerney, for example). Excepting New Hampshire, Democrats continue to hold every single House seat in New England.

* Yesterday's defeat is tomorrow's victory. Plenty of folks who went down in defeat today are folks who I think could do wonders in a rematch -- Tom Perriello in the VA-05, who finished much closer to Robert Hurt than I think many expected, is someone I particularly hope to see again. And there are quite a few districts the GOP won which they better start running for reelection on day one: the MN-08 (I'm still shocked that Oberstar lost, but the iron range has deep Democratic roots), the NC-02, the NH-02, the NV-03, and several scattered around New York, to name a few. And the Democratic ground game in 2012 will be a nightmare for new GOP incumbents in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.

* Finally, while the House will undoubtedly be its own special brand of nightmare for the next two years (Michelle Bachmann for #4!), I remember the Clinton years, and thus I remember what happens to Republicans when they let their inmates run the asylum based on rabid hatred of the President. The fact of the matter is that their behavior doesn't resonate with the nation's voters. It'll be Sarah Palin writ large. And since the House alone can't accomplish anything, I expect their off-putting rage to increase in direct proportion to their continued impotence.

So, mourn if you have to, but snap out of it quick. Things could have been much worse. Shake it off, get off the dirt, and get back in the game. There's still work to be done.

Game On

First of all, congratulations to my Republican friends on a substantial election victory. While the GOP underperformed expectations in the Senate (where Democrats scored upset victories in Colorado and Nevada), they exceeding them in the House, where they won well over 60 seats and will take control of the House with an over 50-seat margin. Stateside, things also were pretty solid for the Republicans -- taking over at least 11 governor's mansions (while losing them in Hawaii, California, and probably -- pending recount -- Minnesota) and racking up big margins in state legislatures. That will be a big benefit come redistricting time.

That being said, step away from the carnage, and where are we? Democrats control the White House. A sizable Republican majority in the House is balanced by a decent Democratic majority in the Senate. The wind at their backs in every way -- bad economy, off-year election, riled up base, an overextended Democratic Party after two straight "wave" elections of our own -- and the GOP only pushed us back to 50 yard line.

To be clear, that's no small accomplishment when you're starting from your own 10, and the GOP demonstrated an excellent ability to play red zone defense in the first half of the Obama administration. I'm not going to engage in any tripe either about how now Republicans have to show they can govern because, if there is one thing the GOP proved these past two years, it's that voters will blame the president's party for all that happens (good or ill) even if the opposition does literally nothing other than try and grind the machinery of government to a halt. They've found a winning strategy -- why shouldn't they stick with it?

So, congratulations to the GOP for getting back into the ballgame. Two more years until Obama is up for re-election, and as far as I'm concerned, every single one of those House seats you just won comes with a two-year expiration date.

Game on.

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Election Night Liveblog

Fuck it -- what else am I going to do tonight? Most recent posts will be at the top.

* * *

1:03 AM: Well, a lot of the reporting has started to stall out (I'm looking at you, Washington). I'm headed off to bed. From the looks of it, the GOP overperformed on the House side of things, underperformed in the Senate, and was just about right for governor's race. I'll have a fuller "lay of the land" reaction post tomorrow. In any event, congratulations to my Republican friends, and good night.

12:38 AM: My rising panic over Minnesota is at least partially assuaged, as perhaps the only "big vote" county which isn't in yet is St. Louis County -- home of Duluth. It's only reported 22%. That's good news for both Oberstar and Dayton, who desperately need a shot in the arm as their lead continues to bleed out.

12:30 AM: So what meaningful races are still undecided out there? Obviously, there are a bunch of House races that probably are razor thin right now, but since all they're doing is padding a great GOP day, it's hard to get riled over them -- there are a few I'm still watching for idiosyncratic reasons (ID-01, HI-01, AZ-08, MN-08), but I'm not being systematic about it anymore. Putting those aside, the things I'm still watching are the Colorado and Washington Senate races, and the Maine, Minnesota, Oregon and Florida gubernatorial races (Alaska's Senate race will be undecided for approximately forever).

12:26 AM: Dayton and Oberstar are both down to one point leads. I swear to God, Duluth, I will have your head for this (that means you, Netland).

12:11 AM: Bennet may yet win this. He's back to within 4,00 votes, and we still got that nice, juicy half of Denver to come in.

12:05 AM: Herseth can't get over the hump in South Dakota, handing another seat to the GOP. On the other hand, Rep. Ron Kind (my girlfriend's former employer) dodges the Wisconsin curse and holds onto his seat.

12:01 AM: James Oberstar's lead has been around 3 points all night. Mark Dayton's, by contrast, has not. This is disconcerting news.

11:59 PM: Buck finally jumps ahead of Bennet (49/46) as Colorado Springs comes in. We're at 73% of precincts reporting, total. There's still some big Bennet caches left -- for instance, half of Denver.

11:46 PM: Folks are starting to call Nevada for Harry Reid. Boxer's already been declared the victor in California, and Murray is still hanging onto her two point lead in Washington. Democrats definitely are exceeding expectations on the Senate side, even as they get killed in the House. And if Michael Bennet can squeak through in Colorado, I'd consider the day's Senate outcome to be a roaring success for the Democrats, all things considered.

11:44 PM: You can add Wisconsin to the (lengthy) list of states which killed Democrats tonight. Dems lost Feingold's Senate seat, the governor's mansion, and at two (possibly three) of the state's eight House seats.

11:39 PM: While Marco Rubio handily won the Florida senate seat, benefiting from the anti-Rubio faction splitting between Crist (30) and Meek (20), on the governor's side of things, Alex Sink (D) is creeping back into contention -- she trails Rick Scott (R) by only a point with 88% counted.

11:36 PM: Senator Pat Toomey appears to be the result as well. Oh, and for those of you who were interested, Jan Schakowsky defeated Joel Pollak by a rousing 66/32 margin. Pollak's campaign was based off the notion that Schakowsky was tied too closely to Obama and thus was not sufficiently "pro-Israel", which would turn off her Jewish Democratic base. Apparently not.

11:30 PM: Two Democratic incumbents in Arizona (Kirkpatrick and Mitchell) are down and probably out. Rep. Gabrielle Gifford looks like she'll pull out the W in the AZ-08, and staunch progressive Rep. Raul Grijalva is hanging on to a two point lead in the AZ-07.

11:28 PM: Paul LePage has taken a narrow lead in the Maine Gubernatorial race. Not promising.

11:23 PM: It looks like it will indeed be Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL). I wonder how long it will take for the erstwhile "moderate" to go full teabagger?

11:21 PM: Colorado gets in on the torture Dems fun. 67% in and Bennet's lead continues to fade -- it's down to one point. Bonus aggravation -- Republican gubernatorial nominee Dan Maes is now at 11% -- the GOP needs him to stay above 10% to avoid becoming a "minor party".

11:17 PM: With Harry Reid still holding onto a surprisingly robust lead (52/44) in the Nevada Senate race, it may be NV-03 that actually becomes the race to watch over there. Incumbent Democrat Dina Titus trails by 1,500 votes with 20% in.

11:06 PM: A bunch of folks had declared that we'd lost Sanford Bishop's seat in the GA-02. But with 96% in, he's crawled back into the lead. A 300 vote lead, but a lead nonetheless.

11:03 PM: 54% in, and Patty Murray is up 51/49 over Dino Rossi. Hold this and California, and it won't matter what happens in Colorado or Nevada (well, except for the part where it matters if Sharron Angle has an influence on anything more prominent than her lunch selection).

11:01 PM: While Pat Quinn may surprisingly hang onto his key to the governor's mansion, Mark Kirk maintains a two point lead in the Illinois Senate race. The Green Party candidate, by the way, is taking 3 percent of the vote.

10:54 PM: About 20% in, and both Boxer (Senate) and Brown (Governor) are holding decent leads. The Senate seat is probably the GOP's last chance to make a run at taking control of the Senate (Washington is other race to watch in that column -- and that's assuming Colorado and Nevada go their way), the governor's mansion would be a rare flip for team blue this year.

10:48 PM: In Minnesota, wins all around for the incumbents (well, Oberstar hasn't been called yet, but I think he'll swing it). The governor's race is closing, but I don't think fast enough -- Dayton's up 7 with 77% in. Way to keep the faith, Minnesota.

10:42 PM: What's happening in New England? Well, the Dems held both of their Rhode Island seats, and are poised to do the same in Connecticut (though the numbers in the CT-04 are wonky). They can't crack the Connecticut governor's mansion, though. Lincoln Chafee (I) has a narrow, two point lead in the RI governor's race -- hey, I'll root for him on that one. The Independent candidate is also leading the Maine gubernatorial race -- good news, since the Republican nominee (LePage) is certifiable. Vermont is all good news for the D's, although the governor's race is still pretty close (a 3 point margin). By contrast, Republicans rule the day in New Hampshire, with a Senate win and both House seats likely under their belt (Dems hold the governor's mansion). Finally, there was some rough sledding at times, but the Dems managed a clean sweep in Massachusetts.

10:39 PM: It looks like Republicans will indeed pickup both the Illinois and Pennsylvania Senate seats. The moral victory, I guess, is that it's by perhaps tighter than expected margins. Also, that big Reid lead appears to be from early voters -- make of that what you will.

10:36 PM: A ton of Democratic losses in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and upstate New York. Fun fact: Also places that tend to get hit particularly hard in economic recessions. No coincidence -- it's the economy, stupid.

10:34 PM: (Re)count it! Rep. Gerry Connelly (D) holds on for a 500 vote victory.

10:31 PM: The story of the evening is early leads for Dems fade late. So I'll try not to get too cheery about Harry Reid being up 10 over Sharron Angle with 51% in. Still, if there is one person (even more than Pat Toomey) that shouldn't be allowed near any civic institution, it's Sharron Angle.

10:29 PM: Obviously, most of Alabama is, well, Alabama, but the AL-02 is close. Rep. Bobby Bright is in a 50/50 dead heat right now, with 86% in. Elsewhere in Dixie, Travis Childers (MS-01) is already down, and he looks to be joined by Gene Taylor (MS-04).

10:23 PM: Hey, at least the fetal personhood amendment went down, hard, in Colorado. And Bennet is still hanging on to his 5 point lead, with 46% in. Feels like it is just the calm before the storm, though.

10:21: Toomey is now up 51/49 in Pennsylvania, and I don't think there are enough votes left in Montgomery County for Sestak to make up the difference.

10:16 PM: Out in the Dakotas' at-large districts, Earl Pomeroy (ND) will go down in defeat by 10 points, while Stephanie Herseth (SD) is down 2 points but still in the hunt with 77% reporting.

10:10 PM: Bean's back in front (narrowly), Kirk has a one point lead, Quinn has a one point lead of his own, and now it's three Democratic incumbents falling (not including Bean) in the land of Lincoln (add Halverson to the list).

10:03 PM: Melissa Bean has fallen behind (albeit by less than 100 votes) in her reelection campaign in the IL-08. That one will sting. 87% is in.

10:00 PM: Carleton's own Rush Holt will hang on to his New Jersey congressional seat. Because every Congress needs at least one physics Ph.D.

9:55 PM: Mark Dayton (D) is up 9 over Tom Emmer in the Minnesota gubernatorial race. I am neither panicked nor thrilled about the areas which have yet to report. We have to keep an eye on Oberstar, Peterson, and Walz tonight, though all are leading in early returns.

9:53 PM: We're still probably in recount land, but Bob Etheridge (NC-03) is down almost 2,000 votes with 99% in. Republicans pick one off in NC, but the rest survive intact.

9:50 PM: 99% in and Rep. Ben Chandler (D) is up by 600 votes in the KY-06. He'll declare victory, the rest of us will wait on the recount.

9:49 PM: Roy Blunt (R) will be Missouri's next Senator. It's good to see another addition to the caucus of corruption there.

9:45 PM: What is it about Dan Seals? He always has narrow polling leads at the end of his races for the IL-10, and he can never actually win the damn thing. He's currently down 52/48 with 85% in. Mark Kirk has also pulled into a narrow lead on the Senate side of things, while Pat Quinn is maintaining a two point lead in his bid to hold onto the governor's mansion. Two Democratic House members (Phil Hare and Bill Foster) are looking like they'll lose their seats. Melissa Bean is up 3 with 77% in.

9:42 PM: Toomey's pulled even in the PA Senate race (75% in). The question is how much juice Sestak has left in the counties ringing Philadelphia. Pittsburgh is done, but Montgomery County (where Sestak is up 54/46) still has plenty of votes to spare.

9:38 PM: Oh, and it looks like Spratt is going down in SC too. Ohio is turning into its own little massacre, with 5 Democratic seats poised to flip. Ted Strickland is hanging surprisingly tough in the governor's race, down only 2 with 67% in, though I doubt it will be enough.

9:37 PM: The South Carolina ride is over -- Wilson holds (albeit by far narrower than expected margins), and Haley wins the governor's slot.

9:35 PM: 98% in, Rep. Gerry Connelly up by about 700 votes -- yeah, I think the VA-11 is going to a recount. And for all y'all who called that one GOP two hours ago ... oh ye of little faith.

9:33 PM: Rep. Joseph Cao (R) gets knocked off in Louisiana, in what was a gimme pickup for the Democrats since the moment polls closed in 2008. Still, every seat counts.

9:32 PM: Bob Etheridge is down by 59 votes right now in the NC-02. 85% in -- time to bite some nails.

9:30 PM: Well, Chet Edwards, you had a good run, but even you couldn't hold on to a seat that red in West Texas this year.

9:28 PM: John Hickenlooper looks like he will hold onto the Colorado governor's mansion for the Democrats. Now the real question (aside from the Senate race, where Bennet maintains a 5 point lead over Ken Buck) is whether Republican nominee Dan Maes can even break 10%. If not, the GOP is relegated to minor party status in Colorado (with all manner of terrible consequences). Thanks, Tom Tancredo!

9:25 PM: Rep. Frank Kravotil is trailing badly in the MD-01, down 55/41 with half in. Tough break, but it was always going to be hard to maintain a 7-1 split in the Maryland congressional delegation. Governor Martin O'Malley (D) cruised to victory in his rematch against Robert Ehrlich.

9:11 PM: Colorado time! About a third in, and Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper are sporting healthy leads in the Senate and Governor's races, respectively. Republicans are looking good for pickups in the CO-03 and CO-04 (Salazar and Markey's districts). I fully expect the statewide races to tighten considerably.

9:08 PM: Michigan is starting to float in -- the GOP will flip the governor's seat (no surprise there), and already has picked up the MI-01. We'll see if anything else goes their way -- Tim Walberg (R) looks poised to take the MI-07, which was a lean-R seat, and, somewhat unnervingly, longtime Rep. John Dingell (D) is down early (though still plenty to report there).

9:05 PM: This crazy South Carolina thing has actual staying power. Nikki Haley (R) is up a mere point in the governor's race with 61% in, and Rep. Joe Wilson (R) trails by three with 55% in in the SC-01. Either one going blue would be a massive upset.

9:02 PM: 98% in, and Rep. Ben Chandler (D)'s lead less than 1,000 votes. Pull it out, Ben! (Oh, FYI, right after I posted on how surprisingly well Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA) was doing, a flood of GOP votes came in. She's down 8 now with two-thirds in).

8:58 PM: Democrats look to hold all their NC House seats except possibly the NC-02, where incumbent Bob Etheridge trails by about 1,000 votes with 75% in. Even if we lose that seat, things could have been much worse in the Tarheel State. Larry Kissell (who isn't entirely out of the woods yet, though he's up 52/45 with 71% in) is probably the best of these holds, as that race was a pure toss-up.

8:54 PM: Paul Kanjorski (D) is corrupt, so I'm not exactly shedding tears over his PA-11 seat (down 6 with 75% in), but Lou Barletta was an early adapter of the immigrant-bashing crowd, so I'm equally unthrilled to see him advance to a House seat.

8:51 PM: I think Gerry Connelly can pull it off in the VA-11. He's clinging to a narrow lead, but virtually all of Prince Williams County has reported (while a third of Fairfax is still outstanding). Other folks have called this race for the GOP already, so they may know something I don't (particularly if CNN is behind official tabulations -- but they called it a long time ago).

8:46 PM: Democrats are actually doing better than expected statewide in the Keystone State. Kathy Dahlkemper (D), for example, was effectively written off in the PA-02, but is currently trailing by only 2 points. Patrick Murphy, also considered a likely loser, is down only 4 points, with 38% in.

8:44 PM: For what it's worth, I'll gladly trade Republicans 5 House seats over their expected 55-seat gain for keeping Pat Toomey out of the Senate. I like Joe Sestak (he's up 8 points with 34% in).

8:41 PM: The IN-02 is virtually all in, and it looks like Donnelly (D) will indeed hang on. That's the sort of race that is vital for Democrats if they're going to stem the bleeding from tonight.

8:39 PM: All quiet on the Massachusetts front -- Democrats are leading by various margins (but none nailbiting tight ... yet) in all the House races. Deval Patrick is also maintaining a decent 7 point lead in his gubernatorial reelection bid.

8:33 PM: A quarter in and Sestak is up 8 points over Toomey. And unlike Illinois, Sestak isn't relying entirely on early numbers from the big cities that will get gobbled up as the rest of the state reports in. Fingers crossed here.

8:31 PM: Actually, Senate race aside, there's a bunch of interesting things going on in South Carolina. The SC-02 has Joe "you lie" Wilson (R) down 6 with a third in -- that's unexpected. Over in the SC-05, Rep. John Spratt Jr. (D) is down two points in his attempt to hold his seat (that's a little more expected).

8:27 PM: Shaheen (D) and Haley (R) are currently deadlocked in the SC-Gov race, with almost 40% reporting. That wasn't on anyone's radar -- I'm also doubtful it will last much longer. Needless to say, DeMint is cruising over accidental Democratic candidate Alvin Greene in the Senate race.

8:24 PM: Some good early numbers out of Illinois (Senate and Governor's mansion), but it's a lot of Chicago, so don't expect it to last. Meanwhile, Dan Seals is down 6 points in the IL-10 -- a race that was another of a handful of Dem pickup opportunities, but one in which Seals consistently has been unable to close the show.

8:21 PM: I didn't mention this before, but Blumenthal is projected to hold Connecticut's Senate seat for the Dems. Not unexpected, but the sort of race that -- if McMahon had pulled off the upset -- could have signaled a cataclysm this evening. There are some interesting House races and a tight gubernatorial contest I'll be keeping an eye on.

8:16 PM: Charlottesville is all in, Hurt is still up, which means Periello's toast. Over in the VA-11, it's Prince Williams County (R) versus Fairfax County (D) as Gerry Connelly fights for his life (he's up by a little over 1,000 votes with 56% in -- and a little more over Prince Williams reporting than Fairfax).

8:13 PM: Some other unsurprising calls: Republicans will take over a Dem Senate seat in North Dakota. The big New York races (Senator and Gubernatorial) will stay Democratic, however. In North Carolina, Richard Burr (R) holds the "cursed seat", marking the first time in recent memory an incumbent has won over there.

8:10 PM: So here's where we're at so far. Republicans have already picked up two Senate seats -- Indiana (open, formerly Bayh) and Arkansas (Lincoln). Both of these are entirely unsurprising. Democrats will hold their Senate seat in Delaware, as the hapless Christine O'Donnell got nowhere. Republicans will likewise maintain their seat in Kentucky, as Rand Paul will get a chance to actually repeal the Civil Rights Act. Other seats which will maintain their current position include Florida (Rubio) and Maryland (Mikulski). Most importantly, Joe Manchin is projected to hold a Democratic Senate seat in West Virginia -- one which was absolutely crucial to GOP hopes to flip the Senate.

On the House side of things, Republicans started well in Indiana flipping a Senate seat (expected) and taking at least two House seat (I'm writing off Baron Hill). That's roughly in line with expectations. Joe Donnelly looks like he may squeak out a victory in the IN-2.

Kentucky is looking better for the Democrats, as they will hold the KY-3 (Yarmuth). Ben Chandler's race to hold the KY-06 is too close to call -- he's up by less than 1,000 votes with over 90% of precincts tabulated.

Over in Virginia, Robert Hurt looks to take over Tom Periello's VA-05 seat (sorry, Leah) -- the outstanding Charlottesville votes aren't going to be enough. Rick Boucher also will lose in the VA-09, which is a good pick-up for the Republicans. The VA-11 race (it's a suburban DC district) is still too close to call, with incumbent Gerry Connelly down 2 points with about half the votes in. However, going county-by-county I think he still has a decent shot -- he's got more good terrain left than his GOP opponent does.

Finally, two Democratic losses in Florida seats (Kozmas and Grayson), with Boyd possibly to follow. The Governor's race is still tight. Democrats will pick up Mike Castle's old seat in Delaware, giving them an undoubtedly rare flip tonight.

Stewing in Juice

Election day (as opposed to evening) is always rough on me -- even when the good guys aren't about to get trounced. What does one do all day? I'm thirsty for information, but nothing happens until polls close (the first batch closed 20 minutes ago, but we won't start seeing early results for a little while yet). The networks have a steady flow of election coverage I could tune into, except I still possess self-respect. What I want is some evidence of turnout ratios, but I haven't heard all that much (what I have heard is mostly what one would expect -- Republican turnout is good, Democratic turnout is maybe a little better than anticipated, but still underwhelming).

Nothing to do but quietly simmer, I guess.

Mid-Term Madness!

Brace yourself -- it's gonna be a rough day. I probably won't live-blog, on account of being curled up in the fetal position. But you never know with me.

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Life After Foxman

The Forward has a post inquiring what will happen to the ADL after longtime leader Abe Foxman retires. We can only hope he hurries up, but so far that doesn't seem to be in the cards.

Meanwhile, a new proposal working its way through the Knesset decides to crib off of North Korea and require that all tour guides swear loyalty to the "national Israeli viewpoint" (whatever that is).

The More Things Change

The Tea Party gets a boost from history's greatest monster: "I don't have any criticism of the members of the Tea Party. A lot of those same people, 30 years ago, were the ones who put me in the White House."

Hallow's Eve

All of us Democrats are bracing for an election day massacre. One can grasp at straws -- I was speaking to a friend whose working for a Congressman I had personally left for dead, and she was shockingly confident (especially given that a few months ago she was essentially passing out resumes). She told me that GOTV will be their salvation. It's a thin reed, but not a non-existent one, given the well-documented split between registered and likely voter screens. A campaign that successfully gets out some "unlikely voters" may shock some folks. But I wouldn't get one's hopes up.

The other weird thing is everyone's (I include myself) focus on absolute gains versus the relative balance of power. The consensus outcome for this election seems to be a narrow Democratic majority in the Senate, and a narrow Republican majority in the House. Since this will replace a status quo of massive Democratic majorities in both, that will require an impressive absolute number of GOP wins. But at the end of the day, what does it signify? A nation that is roughly evenly divided. Give the GOP some credit for overcoming incumbent inertia, subtract some for having economic winds at its back (and how much inertia does one need to overcome to knock off a Democratic Congressman in Idaho anyway?). A roughly 50/50 Senate and a roughly 50/50 House signify a roughly 50/50 nation. It only looks like a GOP wave because we started from such a slanted baseline.

Nonetheless, it is difficult to not look out at the coming change and mourn for lost opportunities. Yes, there were some great accomplishments in the past couple years -- the stimulus package, Ledbetter, the health care act (a fight which, more than any other, demonstrated Democratic allergy to actually winning things). But one feels like given the historic majorities we were blessed with, we could have done more. Oh well. The tide goes in, and washes out again.

In any event, with a Republican-controlled House, we can look forward to the Select Committee on Birth Certificates and, of course, impeachment proceedings. And I for one can't wait for Senator Sharron Angle to formally grace our political establishment.